格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views - On Monday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, and also closed down during the night session. The overall market sentiment dominated the short - term market trend, with the stock market and commodities generally falling, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. The black - series varieties also declined, and stainless steel and its raw material nickel fell significantly. However, during the night session, raw materials such as coking coal, coke, and ore stopped falling, and nickel and stainless steel showed signs of stopping the decline [1]. - The fundamentals of steel changed little. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased this period, while demand decreased. Rebar production and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot - rolled coil production increased while inventory decreased. Rigid demand entered the seasonal off - season, and winter storage demand was less than in previous years. The market generally expected post - holiday prices to be stable [1]. - Based on the night - session trend, the black - series may stop falling, and the raw material side is relatively strong, providing support for finished products. It is recommended to cautiously lay out long positions on dips and set stop - losses. Stainless steel and nickel may fluctuate in the short term, and it is not suitable to chase short positions in large quantities at the current point [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and also closed down during the night session [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Nine departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan", which encourages local governments to increase subsidies for the replacement of consumer goods during the Spring Festival, support offline physical retail, and mobilize enterprises to carry out exhibitions and sales of automobiles, home appliances, digital, and smart products during the Spring Festival [1]. - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global market. The new order volume was 107.82 million deadweight tons, accounting for 69% of the global market. As of the end of December, the order - on - hand volume was 274.42 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%, accounting for 66.8% of the global market, reaching a new historical high [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On Monday, the stock market and commodities generally fell, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Affected by this, black - series varieties also declined, and stainless steel, which has the closest relationship with non - ferrous metals, fell sharply. During the night session, raw materials stopped falling, and nickel and stainless steel showed signs of stopping the decline. The short - term market sentiment dominated the market trend [1]. - The fundamentals of steel changed little. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased, while demand decreased. Rebar production and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot - rolled coil production increased while inventory decreased. Rigid demand entered the seasonal off - season, and winter storage demand was less than in previous years. The market generally expected post - holiday prices to be stable. The current winter storage locked - in price is basically between 3100 - 3150 yuan, which is roughly the same as the futures price [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Based on the night - session trend, the black - series may stop falling, and the raw material side is relatively strong, providing support for finished products. Since the decline did not reach the lower limit of the wide - range fluctuation, such as 3050 for rebar, it is recommended to cautiously lay out long positions on dips and set stop - losses. Stainless steel and nickel may fluctuate in the short term, and it is not suitable to chase short positions in large quantities at the current point. It is recommended to participate in small amounts or wait for opportunities and focus on risk control [1].