综合晨报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market has been significantly reversed, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently in the near future due to the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - Precious metals have entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for the volatility to decline [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels before the spring consumption in the Northern Hemisphere is falsified, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and the performance of pre - holiday inventory is worse than in previous years [5]. - The prices of most commodities are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [2 - 47]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: The US - Iran situation eases, leading to a sharp reversal of geopolitical premium. Brent and WTI futures fall to $66/barrel and $62/barrel respectively, and SC to 450 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Affected by the decline in market sentiment, strengthening of the US dollar, and rising expectations of US - Iran peace talks, oil products weaken. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than crude oil, and the high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [20]. - Asphalt: It follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited range. Supply pressure is limited, and consumption improves year - on - year. The search for alternative crude oil supports the near - month futures contract [21]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, they showed a weak oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in the US exceeded expectations, and the US dollar continued to rebound. They are in a consolidation phase, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: The selling pressure is relatively limited. It is supported by the MA40 moving average. It may oscillate at high levels in Q1, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, it rebounded slightly. The spot premium and discount decreased, and the inventory increased. The price is under short - term pressure [5]. - Zinc: After the previous over - rise, the price corrected rapidly. It may enter a sideways consolidation after testing the cost support [7]. - Lead: The risk of soft squeeze in the warehouse is reduced. The demand is weak, and the price may be supported at 16,700 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The price of nickel collapsed. The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the market sentiment is panicked [8]. - Tin: It broke below the MA40 moving average, and may continue to decline to the MA60 [9]. - Carbonate Lithium: It hit the daily limit down. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The price may oscillate at high levels, and the short - term uncertainty is high [10]. - Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: The price corrected. The spot manganese ore price decreased slightly. The supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17]. - Silicon Iron: The price corrected. The demand has some resilience, and the supply changes little. The price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Chemicals - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price fell to around 47,000 yuan/ton. The industry is trying to curb involution, but the demand boost is limited, and the de - stocking is difficult. The futures price will continue to be under pressure [11]. - Industrial Silicon: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by 50% in February. The downstream demand is also weakening. The short - term price will oscillate [12]. - Urea: The spot price is stable with a downward trend. The production is increasing, and the demand from the industrial downstream is weakening. It is expected to oscillate within a range [22]. - Methanol: The futures price fell. The overseas device operation rate decreased, and the domestic supply increased. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak [23]. - Pure Benzene: The downstream pre - holiday stocking reduced the inventory in East China ports. The supply will increase, and the price may decline after returning to the fundamental trading logic [24]. - Styrene: The price is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [25]. - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The decline in oil prices weakens the cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda may also oscillate strongly as the cost support strengthens [27]. - PX & PTA: Affected by the sharp decline in oil prices, the prices fell. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. There is an expectation of improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [29]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern in the short - term but is affected by the decline in raw materials. Bottle - chip has some improvement in processing margin, but the long - term capacity pressure exists [30]. Building Materials - Glass: It oscillated strongly at night. There is a risk of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, but the current valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [31]. - 20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber: The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell. The supply is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak [32]. - Soda Ash: It oscillated widely. The inventory is increasing, and the supply is at a high level. It is under long - term supply - demand surplus pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The market is weak. Brazilian soybean harvesting is in the early stage, and the yield is expected to be a record high. US soybeans may be further pressured. The domestic soybean crushing volume will decrease in February [34]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The rise of oils is driven by macro - factors. After the macro - risk premium is reversed, they are adjusting rapidly [35]. - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: The import of Australian rapeseed will ease the supply pressure in the future. The supply is expected to be looser, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [36]. - Soybean No.1: It is affected by the macro - market adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - market guidance [37]. - Corn: The national grain sales progress is close to 60%. The price is declining, and the trading is dull before the Spring Festival. The futures price may oscillate weakly [38]. - Pigs: The spot price is adjusting strongly at the beginning of the month, while the futures price is weak. There is a risk of a second bottom - finding for the pig price in the medium - to - long - term [39]. - Eggs: The pre - holiday high of the spot price has passed, and it will be weak after the Spring Festival. There is an upward momentum for the egg price in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point and then buy [40]. - Cotton: The short - term trend may oscillate. The overall supply and sales are booming, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand [41]. - Sugar: Internationally, the production progress in India and Thailand varies. Domestically, the market focuses on the production volume difference. The short - term price faces pressure [42]. - Apples: The futures price oscillates. The pre - holiday inventory is in the peak period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand [43]. - Timber: The price is at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. The low inventory supports the price [44]. - Pulp: The price is falling. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Financial Products - Stock Index: A - share indexes declined significantly. The short - term adjustment is mainly due to the release of profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events and market risk - preference changes [46]. - Treasury Bonds: The 30 - year treasury bond futures led the rise. The strategy is to continue the box - type oscillation, and pay attention to the curve - steepening and flattening opportunities [47].