资讯早间报-20260203

Report Overview - The report is an early morning news bulletin released on February 3, 2026, covering overnight market trends, important news, and financial market information [3] Overnight Market Trends Domestic Commodity Futures - The domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread limit - downs during the day session, with over a dozen major contracts such as Shanghai silver, palladium, platinum, Shanghai copper, Shanghai nickel, crude oil, and lithium carbonate hitting limit - downs, and Shanghai gold approaching the limit - down. At the night session close, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 20%, Shanghai tin fell 12.38%, crude oil fell 4.8%, and Shanghai gold fell 3.86% [5] International Oil Futures - The U.S. crude oil main contract fell 4.42% to $62.33 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract fell 4.1% to $66.48 per barrel. The easing of the U.S. - Iran situation alleviated supply concerns, and the combination of the easing of Iranian geopolitical risks and the intensification of the commodity selling spree led to a sharp drop in international oil prices [5] International Precious Metal Futures - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 1.35% to $4680.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.93% to $79.27 per ounce. Fed officials emphasized no rate cuts in 2026 and maintained a tightening stance. The hawkish chair nominee strengthened the tightening expectation, pushing up the U.S. dollar. Geopolitical hedging demand weakened, and the exchange's increase in margin requirements accelerated the clearing of leveraged funds [5] London Base Metals - London base metals all declined. LME copper fell 1.96% to $12900 per ton, LME zinc fell 2.45% to $3318.5 per ton, LME nickel fell 5.06% to $17045 per ton, LME aluminum fell 2.78% to $3056.5 per ton, LME tin fell 12.22% to $45605 per ton, and LME lead fell 1.92% to $1970.5 per ton [6][7] Important News Macroeconomic News - In January 2026, the RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up 0.2 from 50.1 in December 2025. The manufacturing industry's prosperity continued to improve moderately, with the reading stronger than the same period last year and equal to the average of the past year. Overall, the manufacturing industry's expansion continued in January, with marginal improvements in domestic and foreign demand, the initial transmission of costs to prices, and a slight improvement in employment [9] - As of February 2, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1792.14 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [10] - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the First - Class Market - Oriented Business Environment in Guangdong Province in 2026" on February 2, proposing to promote the construction of the carbon emission trading market and support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in advancing the construction of the carbon emission futures market and studying the launch of carbon - emission - related futures varieties [10] - Due to Trump's threat of retaliatory tariffs, Mexican President Cibao said her country would continue to transport oil to Cuba through diplomatic channels on humanitarian grounds. Mexico will also send humanitarian aid for other basic products this week [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - According to Mulin's research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%. The total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [12] - OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee reviewed the crude oil production data for November and December 2025 and noted that member countries generally fulfilled the agreements. The next OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting is scheduled for April 5 [14] Metal Futures - According to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, if the Ag(T + D) contract had a one - sided market on February 2, 2026, the margin level of the contract would be adjusted from 20% to 26% starting from the closing settlement, and the daily limit would be adjusted from 19% to 25% starting from the next trading day. If there was no one - sided market, the margin level and daily limit would remain unchanged [16] - Three clients, including Shanghai Jiusi Asset Management Co., Ltd., Shanghai Jiusi Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., and Hainan Yunlan Industry Co., Ltd., were found to have actual control relationships and violated the position limit regulations of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. The exchange decided to confiscate the illegal gains of 4,156,269 yuan [16] - As gold and silver prices continued to fluctuate sharply, the enthusiasm for investing in physical gold has waned, and some investors are choosing to wait and see. Some bank gold bars, which were previously in short supply, now have inventory, and some banks' physical gold bars are even "in sufficient supply" [16] - A lead smelter in Southwest China will conduct annual shutdown maintenance from February 6 to April 5, 2026, during which the production line will be completely shut down and no products will be produced [17] - The market price range of high - quality lithium carbonate is 134,800 - 150,600 yuan/ton, down 14,600 yuan from the previous trading day; the market price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 132,500 - 150,600 yuan/ton, down 13,900 yuan; and the market price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 - 147,500 yuan/ton, down 14,250 yuan [17] - Deutsche Bank analysts said that the recent decline in gold does not indicate a lasting trend change, and the gold price is still expected to reach the target of $6000 per ounce [19] - The Thailand Futures Exchange temporarily limited the daily price fluctuation range of silver online futures to within ±30% of the latest settlement price, effective from 14:00 on February 2, 2026. If the trading price reaches ±30%, the exchange may subsequently expand the daily price fluctuation range to ±100% [19] - Guotou Silver LOF announced that due to the significant fluctuations in the international silver market prices, which are quite different from the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures, the company decided to reasonably re - evaluate the fund assets with reference to the price changes in the international silver futures market [19] - The EU is considering banning the import of some Russian platinum - group metals and copper as part of a new round of sanctions against Russia [20] - Trump plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve project called "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion, combining $1.67 billion in private capital and a $10 - billion loan from the U.S. Export - Import Bank for manufacturing enterprises to purchase and store mineral resources [20] Black - Series Futures - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments monitored by Mysteel were 3,094,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 116,200 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,521,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,700 tons. Australia's shipments were 1,820,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1,619,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 131,500 tons [22] - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first batch of projects to purchase second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of the work [22] - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,669,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons; the total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,484,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 tons; and the total iron ore arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,288,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,600 tons [24] Agricultural Futures - Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, oil mills will shut down, and the import volume of soybeans will be low. It is estimated that the total soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills this month will be about 5.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.35 million tons, and a decrease of about 1.05 million tons compared with the average of the past three years [26] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the soybean harvest area for the 2025/26 season, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the 9% progress of the same period last year. AgRural said that the harvest work has not encountered major obstacles so far, but it emphasized the need to closely monitor the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February. Late - maturing areas in Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Mato Grosso do Sul may also suffer losses [26] - Agricultural consulting firm Celeres said that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 181.3 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 177.2 million tons, 5% higher than the 2024/25 season [26] - As of the week ending January 29, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons. The previous week's revised volume was 1,336,311 tons, and the initial value was 1,324,408 tons. In the week of January 30, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,140,431 tons. The U.S. shipped 740,004 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland). The previous week, the U.S. shipped 897,459 tons of soybeans to the Chinese mainland. The U.S. soybean export inspection volume to China accounted for 56.46% of the total export inspection volume this week, compared with 67.76% last week [27] - As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, up from 99.1% last week, compared with 99.4% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 99.3%. The soybean harvest rate was 11.4%, up from 6.6% last week, compared with 8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 11.8% [27] Financial Market Stock Market - On Monday, the A - share market had a deep adjustment. Resource stocks such as gold, non - ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil and gas had widespread limit - downs, and the semiconductor industry chain weakened significantly. Power grid equipment, liquor stocks, and CPO concepts bucked the trend. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.48% to 4015.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.46%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 2.71%. The market turnover was 2.61 trillion yuan, compared with 2.86 trillion yuan the previous day [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 2.23% to 26775.57 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index tumbled 3.36%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 2.54%. Gold stocks were the "hard - hit area", and technology, auto, and chip stocks generally declined. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.9 billion, and Tencent Holdings had a net purchase of HK$1.3 billion [29] - Regarding the rumors of "an increase in the IPO on - site inspection ratio and the suspension of a large number of investment bank projects", many investment banks said that the news was a "small essay" spliced from old news. In addition, many brokerage investment banking departments and private equity institutions said that they had not received any relevant regulatory new regulations, and existing IPO projects were progressing normally without large - scale suspensions [29] - A rumor about "a 50% drawdown of Chiying Private Equity" attracted attention. Relevant personnel of Chiying Private Equity responded that the actual drawdown data needed to be verified by the custodian, and the redemption situation would also affect the final drawdown data. Currently, the company's relevant products mainly hold gold with a low leverage ratio [29] - The founder partner of the 10 - billion - scale quantitative private equity firm Qilin Investment, Shen Xianbing, passed away on February 2 at the age of 40 [30] Industry News - In January, the second - hand housing markets in many key cities warmed up. Beijing and Shanghai had 15,000 and 23,000 second - hand housing transactions respectively, with year - on - year increases of over 20%. Shenzhen had 5,000 transactions, a month - on - month increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. Hangzhou also had significant increases in both month - on - month and year - on - year transactions. Affected by factors such as the market supply rhythm, the new housing markets in key cities were relatively dull [31] - Ten departments issued a document to promote the construction of the low - altitude economy standard system, focusing on five core areas: low - altitude aircraft, low - altitude infrastructure, low - altitude air traffic management, safety supervision, and application scenarios, and establishing a "four - dimensional integration" standard supply system. It is required that the system be basically established by 2027 [32] - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice stating that this year's medical insurance fund supervision will achieve full - coverage flight inspections across all provinces, focusing on key areas such as orthopedics, oncology, inspection and testing, ophthalmology, stomatology, general surgery, and neurology [32] - The mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Requirements for Automobile Door Handles" will be implemented next year. The standard requires that each door (excluding the back door) should be equipped with a mechanical release outer door handle and a mechanical release inner door handle, which means that the popular hidden door handle design will undergo major changes [32] - The China Electricity Council predicts that in 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will exceed that of coal - fired power for the first time, and the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach half of the total installed power generation capacity by the end of the year. The newly added installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, of which the newly added installed capacity of new energy power generation is expected to exceed 300 million kilowatts [32] Overseas News - Iranian President Pezeshkian ordered the start of nuclear negotiations with the United States, and Iran may hold high - level negotiations with the United States in the next few days. Sources said that U.S. envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi are expected to meet in Istanbul, Turkey on February 6 to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement" [33] - U.S. President Trump said that he would reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil and would reduce tariffs and non - tariff barriers against the United States to zero. Modi also promised to purchase over $500 billion worth of U.S. products [33] - Trump plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve project "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion to protect U.S. manufacturers from supply shocks [35] - U.S. House Speaker Johnson said that he was confident that the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government would end before Tuesday. Due to the partial "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the January non - farm payroll report on Friday, and the December job openings report originally scheduled for Tuesday will be rescheduled [35] - Fed's Bostic said that he expects no rate cuts in 2026, and it is too early to claim that the inflation target has been achieved. The policy rate needs to be maintained at a moderately tight level, and it is unwise to adjust the policy in either direction at this stage [35] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI in January rose to 52.6, far higher than the expected 48.5, reaching a new high since August 2022, mainly boosted by the robust growth of new orders and output [36] - Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov confirmed that