聚酯数据日报-20260203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has fallen significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no Spring Festival production cut plan. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to match the growth in polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply side remains tight, and the global effective production capacity release is limited. Although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3] - MEG: After the long - term downturn of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 470.8 yuan/barrel on January 30, 2026, to 449.0 yuan/barrel on February 2, 2026, a decrease of 21.80 yuan/barrel [3] - PTA: PTA - SC decreased from 1848.6 yuan/ton to 1829.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.58 yuan/ton; PTA/SC increased from 1.5403 to 1.5606, an increase of 0.0202; CFR China PX decreased from 913 to 891, a decrease of 22; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 317 to 295, a decrease of 22; PTA主力期价 decreased from 5270 yuan/ton to 5092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 5280 yuan/ton to 5095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 477.3 yuan/ton to 406.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.4 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased from 467.3 yuan/ton to 403.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.4 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from (76) to (71), an increase of 5.0; PTA仓单数量 remained unchanged at 103558 [3] - MEG: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3913 yuan/ton to 3767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (176.17) yuan/ton to (190.17) yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3835 yuan/ton to 3722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from - 126 to - 122, an increase of 4.0 [3] Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 increased from 85.82% to 85.92%, an increase of 0.10% - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 75.63% - MEG开工率 increased from 60.29% to 62.48%, an increase of 2.19% - 聚酯负荷 decreased from 80.82% to 79.76%, a decrease of 1.06% [3] Product Data - Polyester Filament: POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7120; POY现金流 increased from 71 to 267, an increase of 196.0; FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 7320; FDY现金流 increased from (229) to (33), an increase of 196.0; DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 8210; DTY现金流 increased from (39) to 157, an increase of 196.0; 长丝产销 decreased from 28% to 18%, a decrease of 10% [3] - Polyester Staple Fiber: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6685 to 6545, a decrease of 140; 涤短现金流 increased from (14) to 42, an increase of 56.0; 短纤产销 increased from 41% to 66%, an increase of 25% [3] - Polyester Chip: 半光切片 decreased from 5990 to 5860, a decrease of 130.0; 切片现金流 increased from (159) to (93), an increase of 66.0; 切片产销 remained unchanged at 54% [3] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance on the 15th - A 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [3]