日度策略参考-20260203

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Biodiesel, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Soybeans, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - Neutral: Most other industries including stocks, bonds, and various metals and agricultural products, with suggestions of short - term caution, waiting for opportunities, and controlling risks [1] 2. Core Views - Macro - financial: In the short term, policies will support the A - share market, but overseas liquidity tightening may cause panic. In the long run, the stock index is still expected to rise due to low - interest rates, "asset shortage" and economic bottom - building. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Metals: Macro - level risk aversion is pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector. Supply concerns in Indonesia are affecting nickel and stainless steel, while other metals like zinc, tin, etc. are facing different price trends and risks [1]. - Agricultural products: Different agricultural products have different market situations. For example, cotton has support but lacks a driving force; sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support; grains are expected to oscillate and decline before the holiday [1]. - Energy and Chemicals: The energy and chemical sector is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Some products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are showing different price movements and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stocks: Short - term caution is advised due to A - share weakness and overseas liquidity concerns. Long - term upward trend is expected due to low - interest rates and economic recovery [1]. - Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are highlighted, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1]. Metals - Non - ferrous metals: Overall under pressure from risk aversion. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian supply issues. Zinc is expected to correct, and tin's price has fluctuated but not in a trend - reversing way. Gold and silver are in short - term oscillatory or stabilizing trends. Platinum and palladium may be supported in the short term [1]. - Industrial metals: Alumina is expected to oscillate near the cost line. Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) have limited upward space, and iron ore has a clear upper pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Grains and oilseeds: Soybeans are expected to be weak. Cotton is "supported but without a driver". Sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support. Grains are expected to decline before the holiday [1]. - Livestock: The pig production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fossil fuels: Crude oil and fuel oil may be affected by OPEC+ policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Asphalt has high profits but is also affected by supply and demand [1]. - Chemicals: PX drives the chemical sector. PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have different supply - demand and price trends. Methanol, polyethylene, PVC, and LPG are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. Shipping - Container shipping: The freight rate on European routes has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].