黑色金属数据日报-20260203

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The seasonal trading volume of steel continues to shrink, and the market remains volatile. The black sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and there are few tradable points in terms of valuation and drivers. The market is gradually entering a holiday state, and the liquidity of the spot market is being compressed. The demand for building materials is expected to decline seasonally in the next two weeks, and the support from demand for the market is limited. The market can be treated with a sideways view, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for the entry of futures positions, and the hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate due to market sentiment. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The demand side is generally flat, and there is little improvement in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits for alloy plants, and the medium-term oversupply pressure remains. Macro policies are mostly positive, and industrial policies provide driving and cost support for the supply of the two alloys. Overall, the fundamentals of the two alloys continue to be under pressure, and the prices fluctuate [3]. - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The coking coal trading volume has declined, and the actual trading atmosphere in the market is cold. The black market is in the off-season, and the trading is mainly affected by emotional funds. After a sharp decline in the short term, some varieties may rebound, but the black sector is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to cash in the spot before the holiday and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [3]. - The steel mill's molten iron production is basically stable. The 47-port daily average cargo clearance volume has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise and is higher than the same period last year. The steel mill's in-plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The short-term expectation of steel mill resumption and pre-holiday replenishment has supported the iron ore price, but the long-term pressure from port inventory remains. The iron ore market is expected to be in a sideways and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, but there is obvious upward pressure in the long term. It is recommended to short at the resistance level [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - On February 2, the closing prices of far-month contracts such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. declined compared with the previous day, with the decline rates ranging from -1.16% to -3.03%. The closing prices of near-month contracts such as RB2605, HC2605 also decreased, with the decline rates ranging from -1.24% to -3.42% [1]. - The spread between different contracts, such as the spread between RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610, etc., and the spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1]. Spot Market - On February 2, the spot prices of steel products such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc. declined to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from 0 to 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed, with the price of coking coal in some regions declining, and the price of coke in some regions remaining unchanged [1]. - The basis of different varieties, such as the basis of HC, RB, J, JM, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1].