光大期货金融期货日报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core View - The A-share market is experiencing high valuations in hot sectors, with the dynamic PE of the CSI 500 index exceeding twice the standard deviation of the past 5 years. The "stock-bond seesaw effect" is evident, and regulatory authorities are emphasizing market stability. High-valuation sectors may face capital outflow pressure, and volatility is expected to increase around the Spring Festival [1] - Treasury bond futures show mixed performance, and the bond market lacks strong upward momentum under the backdrop of continuous policy support. Interest rates are expected to remain range-bound [1][2] Summary by Directory Research View - Stock Index Futures: The market adjusted with all three major indices down over 2%, and nearly 4,700 stocks falling. High valuations, regulatory emphasis on stability, and measures to cool the market may lead to capital outflows from high-valuation sectors and increased volatility [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: The 30-year contract rose 0.18%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts declined slightly. The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan. The bond market lacks strong upward momentum, and interest rates are range-bound [1][2] Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined, with IC dropping 5.49% and IM down 4.71% from January 30 to February 2, 2026 [3] - Stock Indices: All major indices, including the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, decreased, with the CSI 500 falling 3.98% [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: TS remained flat, TF and T declined slightly, and TL rose 0.13% [3] Market News - Overall Trend: The market adjusted throughout the day, with all three major indices down over 2%. Nearly 4,700 stocks fell, and trading volume reached 2.61 trillion yuan [1][5] - Industry Sectors: Only the power grid equipment and brewing sectors rose, while precious metals, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and semiconductor chips led the decline [5] - Hot Concepts: Power grid equipment stocks and liquor stocks rose, while precious metals, oil and gas, and semiconductor chip stocks declined significantly [5] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: Charts show the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9] - Treasury Bond Futures: Charts display the price trends, basis trends, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, as well as the yields of treasury bonds and the capital interest rates [14][15][16] - Exchange Rates: Charts present the exchange rate trends between the US dollar, euro, pound, yen, and the RMB, including spot and forward exchange rates [22][23][24] Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master's degree holder from Jilin University, serves as the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, including macro fundamentals, key industry sectors, index financial reports, and market capital tracking [29]