碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳，警惕短期剧烈波动，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will experience range - bound fluctuations and stabilize, with market sentiment cooling. However, it warns of risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Raw Materials - Supply: Last week, the raw material market generally rose. The SMM total weekly lithium carbonate operating rate was 49.5% (-1.49%), and the operating rate of all processes except for salt lakes decreased. The SMM total output was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [3]. - Demand: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate output increased by 1.0% month - on - month with increased inventory accumulation; the ternary output decreased by 1.1% month - on - month with gradual inventory reduction. The power cell output decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the SMM new energy vehicle sales penetration rate rose to 55.6%. The energy - storage cells performed strongly with booming production and sales and low inventory [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, and the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, showing a significant differentiation in the inventory structure [3]. Market Conditions - Futures: Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down to 132,440 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the position structure was differentiated, market divergence increased, the advantage of long positions concentrated towards the top, and overall gaming intensified. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,610 tons to 32,241 tons [2]. - Spot: The SMM average price of electric carbon was 155,500 yuan/ton. In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt factories had a low willingness to sell scattered orders, and the market was dull. Some downstream material factories actively inquired and had a strong purchasing willingness at relatively low prices, driving relatively active overall market transactions [2]. Macro - policy - Demand - side: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [4]. - Supply - side: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [4]. - Industrial planning: The Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [4].