有色商品日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices stabilized slightly. The US ISM manufacturing index in January reached 52.6, exceeding expectations and hitting a new high since February 2022. China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in January rose to a three - month high of 50.3. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,676 tons. The market is in rigid procurement, but the willingness to buy has increased with price adjustments. The copper market faces short - term downward pressure, but long - term fundamentals support price increases [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina trended stronger, while Shanghai aluminum trended weaker. Spot alumina prices fell, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened. Supply disruptions have led alumina into a narrow - range recovery, but inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Although market sentiment has dragged down prices, cost support remains solid. There may be opportunities to go long lightly near the cost line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The US economic data improved, alleviating market concerns. In China, manufacturing data also showed positive signs. Inventory changes were mixed. The copper market faces short - term pressure due to weak spot fundamentals, inventory accumulation, and low demand around the Spring Festival, but long - term factors support price increases [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices fluctuated, and aluminum prices were affected by various factors such as supply disruptions, downstream demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [1][2]. - Nickel: Market sentiment led to price declines, but the cost of nickel ore and nickel - iron is rising, providing support for prices. Demand in some sectors is expected to decline seasonally [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. The import window was closed, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [1][4]. - Lead: Lead prices decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The import profit and loss situation changed [4]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory increased. The spot discount widened, and the import profit and loss situation worsened [2][5]. - Nickel: Nickel prices decreased, and inventory changes were mixed. The import profit and loss situation deteriorated significantly [3][5]. - Zinc: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory increased. The import profit and loss situation improved [7]. - Tin: Tin prices decreased significantly, and inventory increased. The import profit and loss situation improved [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [13]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [25]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [31]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [38]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field, and have won many awards [45][46].