方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is weak, affecting the prices of soft commodities and fresh - fruit products. Each variety has its own supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends and trading strategies [2][7][9]. - For soft commodities, sugar supply is abundant, paper pulp supply is not tight but demand is in the off - season, and double - offset paper has cost support weakening and demand in the off - season [2][5][6]. - For fresh - fruit products, the supply of apples has support, and the supply of jujubes is moving towards a situation of both supply and demand being strong [9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section Based on the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is weak recently, and the short - term may show a volatile and repeated trend | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 [19] | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 [19] | | Sugar 2605 | Hold short positions | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply | 5070 - 5100 | 5300 - 5350 [19] | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly allocate long positions | Downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and pulp itself lacks new supply - side positive news recently, so the price is under pressure, but the US dollar quotation is stable, and the increase in warehouse receipt cost may support the short - term price | 5200 - 5300 | 5450 - 5500 [19] | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk price further declines and drives the basis to widen | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 [19] | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The long - term positive expectation still exists, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external price is in a bottom - seeking trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may fluctuate repeatedly | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 [19] | Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - Fundamentals: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas of China was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [20]. - Spot Market: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in the Shandong production area is stable, and the packaging volume of merchants in the cold storage is okay. The price of bagged Fuji in the Shaanxi production area is also stable, and the packaging volume in the cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrival volume is increasing, and the sales of gift - boxed products are okay [20][21][22]. Jujube Market As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for jujubes, but the current sales speed is slower than that of last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [23]. Sugar Market As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35%. Stonex estimated that Brazil's sugar production in the central and southern regions in the 2026/27 crushing season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous estimate. As of the week of January 27, the net short position of speculative positions in ICE raw sugar futures + options decreased by 21,040 hands compared with the previous week. India's domestic sugar sales quota in February 2026 was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. Pulp Market Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continued to be weak. The price of resold BSK decreased, and the spot quotation of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market As of January 27, the non - commercial net long position of futures + options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 13,592 contracts compared with the previous week [30]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9380 | - 138 | - 1.45% [31] | | Jujube 2605 | 8820 | - 130 | - 1.45% [31] | | Sugar 2605 | 5207 | - 41 | - 0.78% [31] | | Pulp 2605 | 5266 | - 34 | - 0.64% [31] | | Cotton 2605 | 14575 | - 95 | - 0.65% [31] | Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 [36] | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 [36] | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 580 [36] | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5375 | - 25 | - 1225 [36] | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 [36] | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 113 | 1344 [36] | Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1271 | 55 | 1781 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips [57] | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 10 | 155 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see [57] | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 1 | - 148 | Oscillate | Wait and see [57] | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 110 | 30 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs [57] | Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 [89] | | Jujube | 3317 | 0 | - 699 [89] | | Sugar | 14069 | - 50 | - 10059 [89] | | Pulp | 142447 | 0 | - 196281 [89] | | Cotton | 10325 | 36 | 3612 [89] | Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references.