如何看待运营商增值税调整的影响？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications sector, indicating an expectation that the sector will outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the VAT category for telecommunications services from value-added telecommunications services to basic telecommunications services, with a corresponding increase in VAT rate from 6% to 9%, is expected to have a short-term impact on the revenue and profits of the three major telecom operators [1][4]. - Despite the VAT adjustment, the operators are actively pursuing technological transformation and upgrading, which is expected to optimize their revenue structure in the long term [1][3]. - The impact on profits may be less severe than initially calculated due to several factors, including past experiences with tax adjustments, the shift towards technology-driven services, and cost reductions through AI-driven operational efficiencies [3][22]. Revenue Impact - The estimated impact of the VAT adjustment on total revenue is approximately 1.3% to 1.4% for the three major operators, with specific estimates of 1.4% for China Mobile, 1.3% for China Telecom, and 1.3% for China Unicom [2][18]. - The affected services primarily include SMS, mobile data services, and internet broadband access, which account for 52%, 48%, and 46% of total revenues for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, respectively [2][9]. Profit Impact - Direct calculations suggest that the absolute revenue impact for 2026 would be approximately 15.3 billion for China Telecom, 54 billion for China Unicom, and 153 billion for China Mobile, representing 8.2%, 15.3%, and 19.3% of their respective total profits [3][19]. - However, the report suggests that the final impact on profits may be lower than these direct estimates due to historical precedents and ongoing strategic shifts towards technology services [3][22]. Investment Conclusion - Overall, while the VAT adjustment will have some short-term effects on performance, the stable profitability and cash flow of the telecom operators, along with attractive dividends and the long-term growth potential of their digital businesses, remain intact [4][26]. - The report recommends focusing on China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom as attractive investment opportunities [4][25].