新能源及有色金属日报：库存小幅增加淡季开始显现-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral and arbitrage strategies are both rated as neutral [5] Core Views - Consumption has entered the off - season, and the decline in absolute prices has limited stimulation for downstream procurement. The discounts in East and South China have been slightly repaired, but the discount in Tianjin has continued to widen. Social inventories have started to accumulate slowly, and the absolute inventory level is still relatively low compared to previous years [4] - The import TC of zinc ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new - year Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, smelting still faces some losses, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to be under pressure. Long - term prospects for consumption and macro factors remain positive [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is -$8.41 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 820 yuan/ton to 24,970 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 820 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 15 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 820 yuan/ton to 24,920 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On February 2, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,735 yuan/ton and closed at 24,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,805 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 446,017 lots, and the open interest was 91,209 lots. The highest price during the day was 25,905 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,245 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,100 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day [3]