燃料油日报：市场波动加剧，盘面大幅回撤-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see; focus on the development of the Iran situation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see; focus on the development of the Iran situation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 7.01% at 2,681 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 5.92% at 3,128 yuan/ton [1] - The recent overall rise in the energy sector was driven by multiple factors such as macro, geopolitical, and capital aspects. After the previous driving factors ebbed, the energy sector tumbled yesterday. High - sulfur fuel oil, which is closely related to Iran, had a larger decline than low - sulfur fuel oil [1] - From a fundamental perspective, high - sulfur fuel oil shows an "east - strong, west - weak" pattern, with tightening spot in the Asia - Pacific region, continuous decline in Singapore's inventory, and a decrease in domestic registered warehouse receipts. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited market contradictions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 7.01% at 2,681 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 5.92% at 3,128 yuan/ton [1] - The overall rise in the energy sector was driven by multiple factors. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump led to a rebound in the US dollar index and a weakening of macro sentiment. Geopolitical premiums in the oil market first rose and then fell. After the previous driving factors ebbed, the energy sector declined [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil shows an "east - strong, west - weak" pattern, with tightening spot in the Asia - Pacific region, continuous decline in Singapore's inventory, and a decrease in domestic registered warehouse receipts. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited market contradictions [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see; focus on the development of the Iran situation [2] - Low - sulfur: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see; focus on the development of the Iran situation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]