关注马士基价格是否修正

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The February contract valuation bottom of the container shipping index (European Line) futures may be around 1700 points, and factors such as vessel schedule delays and the online cargo collection ratios of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price [5]. - Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate driver is weak. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the near - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding strategies in March after the festival. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the shipping rhythm and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. - For more distant contracts, the resumption time of the Suez Canal is uncertain. With relatively fewer ultra - large vessel deliveries in 2026, there may still be an expectation gap. Investors can consider arbitrage opportunities in contracts such as long EC2606 short EC2610 and long EC2608 short EC2610 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping alliances on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes for WEEK6 - WEEK9 are 1295/2070, 1230/1960, 1205/1910, and 1200/1900 respectively; HPL's quotes for February and March also show differences [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Geopolitically, a White House official will visit Israel and meet with Netanyahu [3]. - Static supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided, with relatively less delivery pressure for ultra - large ships in 2026 [3]. - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in February is 263,100 TEU, in March is 313,400 TEU, and in April is 279,000 TEU. There are 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March [4]. 3.3 Contract and Price Analysis - The final trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. The preliminary estimated valuation bottom of the February contract delivery settlement price is around 1700 points [5]. - The freight rate before the Spring Festival is weakly driven. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. The freight rates of some shipping companies in March have increased, and the capacity in March has increased by 19% compared to February [6]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The April contract is expected to fluctuate. - Arbitrage: None currently [9] 3.5 Market Data - As of February 2, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures is 58,198 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 42,731 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided [8]. - The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes on February 1 and February 2 are also given [8].