市场成交低迷，铅价低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly. The increasing losses of secondary lead forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak. The continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed - market state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $45.87/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 101,052 lots, a decrease of 21,807 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 57,029 lots, an increase of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,990 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,690 yuan/ton and closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the decline of the lead price, downstream enterprises were in a wait - and - see state. Most downstream enterprises already had a certain inventory, and some were even waiting for the holiday. The overall market trading situation was sluggish [2] Inventory - On February 2, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 2, the LME lead inventory was 204,075 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]