棉价内强外弱，郑糖低位整理

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the global supply-demand situation in the 25/26 season is generally loose, with weak US cotton exports and soft terminal demand. ICE US cotton is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. In the medium to long term, US cotton is undervalued with limited downside. Domestically, cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories rose seasonally. The expected reduction in planting area supported traders' willingness to hold goods, strengthening the basis. However, downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory levels were relatively high. The annual supply-demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [1] - For sugar, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in definite surplus. In the short term, the tight trade flow in Q1 may support raw sugar prices, but the supply will loosen in Q2 with the new harvests in Brazil and Thailand, suppressing price rebounds. In the long term, due to rising ethanol prices in Brazil, potential impacts of El Niño on India's precipitation, and possible reduction in Thailand's planting area in the 26/27 season, sugar prices are not overly pessimistic. Domestically, the new season's production is expected to increase, and the supply is growing seasonally. The pressure of imported sugar in Q4 is high, but imports are expected to decline in the off - season [3] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to ease, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. With the expected improvement in the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, alleviating the pressure on China's imports. On the demand side, there was over - capacity in finished paper in 2025, and terminal demand was insufficient, leading to high port inventories. In 2026, paper capacity expansion will drive marginal demand for pulp, with white cardboard and household paper being the main growth points [6] Group 3: Cotton Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton (-0.65%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,806 yuan/ton, down 134 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,070 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton inspection: From January 23 to 29, 2026, 24,400 tons of US cotton in the 2025/26 season were graded, with 78.1% meeting ICE cotton delivery requirements. Cumulatively, 2.9618 million tons were inspected, with 81.8% meeting the requirements [1] Group 4: Cotton Strategy - In the short term, the expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the 26/27 season has been partially priced in. The area adjustment will be gradual over 3 - 5 years, and domestic demand support is limited. The domestic market also faces pressure from the domestic - foreign price difference, so it is expected to trade in a range [2] Group 5: Sugar Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,207 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-0.78%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - Forecast: Stonex expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season to be 40.7 million tons, 800,000 tons less than the previous forecast, and ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 400 million liters more [2] Group 6: Sugar Strategy - In the short to medium term, the domestic sugar market is in the inventory - building stage. The overall downside is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to bottom out through a range - bound process. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in domestic import policies [4] Group 7: Pulp Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Market trend: The spot price of imported wood pulp continued to weaken. The trading of imported softwood pulp was cautious, with some prices falling by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the trading of imported hardwood pulp was slow and stabilized; the trading of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp was light, with prices stable [5] Group 8: Pulp Strategy - The overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and port inventories remain high. In the short term, pulp prices are expected to trade in a low - level range [7]