青岛港口库存小幅回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral. The investment rating for BR is also neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering February, the global natural rubber supply will enter the off - season, and the supply pressure may gradually ease. However, the domestic arrival volume may remain at a high level. After the raw material stocking of downstream tire factories is completed, the domestic inventory will continue to accumulate. The cost - end support of rubber remains strong. The tire start - up rate will decline before the Chinese Spring Festival, showing a pattern of double decline in supply and demand. Rubber mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere [10] - The market sentiment has weakened, pushing the price of butadiene rubber to drop significantly, with limited changes in fundamentals. The butadiene rubber production loss pattern continues, and private - owned plants may reduce their loads. The tire start - up rate will decline before the Chinese Spring Festival, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price of butadiene rubber still follows the upstream butadiene raw material. The supply of butadiene has support, but the demand side may have short - term drag, and the price may show high - level fluctuations [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 380 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,925 yuan/ton, a change of - 310 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 490 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 230 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,925 US dollars/ton, a change of - 35 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 US dollars/ton, a change of - 40 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 12,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2] - In 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 7.0162 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively [2] ANRPC Report - The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in November would decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month; the consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On February 2, 2026, the RU basis was - 180 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 980 yuan/ton (- 150), the NR basis was 491.00 yuan/ton (+69.00); the whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton (- 350), the mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 230), the 3L spot was 16,300 yuan/ton (- 350). The STR20 was quoted at 1,925 US dollars/ton (- 35), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between the mixed rubber and butadiene styrene was 2,000 yuan/ton (- 230) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai glue was 59.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.60 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [5] - Start - up rate: The start - up rate of all - steel tires was 62.47% (- 0.06%), and the start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 74.32% (+0.48%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 591,689 tons (+7,185), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,271,830 tons (- 2,137), the RU futures inventory was 110,930 tons (+1,060), and the NR futures inventory was 53,625 tons (- 1,714) [6] Market Analysis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On February 2, 2026, the BR basis was - 300 yuan/ton (+190), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 10,500 yuan/ton (- 100), the BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was quoted at 13,000 yuan/ton (+0), the BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was quoted at 12,700 yuan/ton (- 200), the private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,350 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,323 yuan/ton (- 740) [7] - Start - up rate: The start - up rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 76.38% (+0.26%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,780 tons (+430), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,650 tons (- 1,400) [9]