液化石油气日报：宏观与地缘扰动，盘面跟随板块下跌-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on short - term observation [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall decline of the energy sector was due to the ebb of previous driving factors, including the rebound of the US dollar index and the marginal easing of the Iranian situation. The external propane - butane and PG futures followed the decline [1]. - The relatively weak trend of the PG market was due to the high raw material cost suppressing downstream profit and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas. The warehouse receipt and delivery game also brought disturbances. The future trend depends on the Iranian situation, and the LPG market is expected to have an oversupply if the situation eases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 2, regional prices in different markets were as follows: Shandong 4450 - 4520 yuan/ton, Northeast 3840 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China 4200 - 4530 yuan/ton, East China 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River Basin 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton, Northwest 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, South China 4800 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China decreased by 25 and 20 dollars/ton respectively. The RMB - converted prices decreased by 196 yuan/ton. In South China, propane decreased by 25 dollars/ton and butane by 25 dollars/ton, with RMB - converted prices down 196 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Fundamental and Market Structure - Overseas supply tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia raised the February CP. However, the high raw material cost suppressed downstream profit, and the price inversion and warehouse - receipt issues affected the PG market. The Iranian situation is a key factor for future trends [2]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, with short - term observation as the main approach. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]