有色板块集体回撤，碳酸锂价格再次跌停

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain good. If the price correction is significant, consider going long on dips. However, due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, attention should be paid to position risks, and short - term trading should be mainly range - bound operations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 2, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 146,000 yuan/ton and closed at 132,440 yuan/ton, with a - 13.99% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 644,314 lots, and the open interest was 347,698 lots (the previous day's open interest was 372,601 lots). The current basis is 7,220 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 32,241 lots, a change of 1,610 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 145,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 142,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,090 US dollars/ton, a change of - 85 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Power Generation Side" on January 30, 2026. This policy clearly defines the capacity price mechanism for the first time, encourages the construction and operation of long - term energy storage, and expands the compensation coverage, which will have a relatively positive impact on energy storage demand and lithium carbonate prices [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM's latest statistics, the spot inventory is 107,482 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,414 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 19,003 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 831 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,007 tons; other inventories are 47,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,590 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: If the price correction is significant, consider going long on dips. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]