铜价暂时止跌企稳，但年前料难有强势表现

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral [8] - Option strategy: Sell put options [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, but it is unlikely to show strong performance before the Spring Festival [1] - The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center, but the full increase in global visible inventory and the accumulation of domestic social inventory above 320,000 tons highlight the suppression of real consumption by high copper prices [8] - In February, the supply - demand contradiction will be temporarily alleviated, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,200 yuan/ton and closed at 98,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.92% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,490 yuan/ton and closed at 100,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 180 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 130 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan. The spot price range was 99,880 - 101,040 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in copper prices stimulated a significant increase in terminal orders, with some enterprises' order volume increasing by up to 60% [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US in the next few days, and the Russia - Ukraine issue negotiation will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4 - 5 [3] - The US plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve project "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion [3] - Mine end: The Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile of Capstone Copper has resumed operation, but the strike by nearly 22% of its employees is still ongoing [4] - Smelting and import: LME copper inventory increased and then decreased slightly, SHFE copper inventory continued to accumulate, international copper inventory decreased, and New York copper inventory continued to accumulate [5] - Consumption: In January 2026, copper product terminal consumption showed pre - holiday rush characteristics with differentiation among sectors. In February, terminal consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [6] - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 1,100 tons to 174,675 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 1,676 tons to 158,527 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 330,400 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - Copper: Maintain a neutral rating. The spot TC at the mine end has dropped to a record low of - 49.84 dollars/ton. The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center. The copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton in February [8] - Option: Sell put options [8]