硅价震荡下跌，供需双弱格局持续

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is clearly supported by the rising prices of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain under the situation of double reduction in supply and demand. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have a clear plan to stop production, and the supply tends to shrink. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating to clear out [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 2, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,880 yuan/ton and closed at 8,795 yuan/ton, a change of (-105) yuan/ton or (-1.18)% compared with the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 236,313 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 1, 2026, was 13,943 lots, a change of 288 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 (100) yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared with the previous week [1]. - The supply side of industrial silicon is expected to have production cuts and shutdowns in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the supply side tends to shrink [2]. - On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon is expected to increase in the short term due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax. However, the demand for industrial silicon is sluggish due to inventory accumulation and production cuts by large polysilicon manufacturers in February. The organic silicon industry has a production cut expectation, and the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend, and the operating rate is expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening in the future [2]. Polysilicon - On February 2, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 47,250 yuan/ton and closing at 47,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 1.66% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 40,278 (42,513 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 17,789 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 47.60 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 47.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 333,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29GW, with a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon was 20,200.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm components was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm components was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [3]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [6].