大类资产配置月报第55期：2026年2月：美联储鹰派主席提名“修复”独立性与美元

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of hawkish Fed Chair Walsh is expected to restore the Fed's independence and support the dollar, leading to a rise in interest rates and a potential tightening of monetary policy[10] - The market anticipates a new round of tightening due to the Fed Chair nomination, with economic fundamentals showing signs of slowing down[2] - The 1Y Treasury yield decreased from 1.337% to 1.3%, while the 10Y Treasury yield fell from 1.847% to 1.811%[2] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.76% from 3968.84 to 4117.95, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.47% from 3203.17 to 3346.36[2] - The NASDAQ index showed a slight increase of 0.95%, moving from 23241.99 to 23461.82, but is expected to face valuation pressure in the short term[2] - The recommendation is to overweight financial stocks while underweighting consumer stocks and U.S. equities due to tightening expectations[3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Trends - Brent crude oil prices surged by 13.57%, from $57.42 to $65.21 per barrel, driven by geopolitical factors and Fed expectations[2] - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, moving from 98.27 to 97.12, indicating a recovery in dollar strength[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate slightly decreased from 6.99 to 6.95, reflecting a slower appreciation of the yuan[2]