铁水微降，原料支撑减弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, overseas macro news caused significant disturbances, leading to sharp fluctuations in commodities and frequent movements in the black - series. The slight decline in hot metal provided some support to raw materials. With the first round of coke price increase implemented, coking coal and coke tended to fluctuate, while iron ore maintained a certain level of resilience. In the near - term, both iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to operate with a weakening trend [3][4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Overseas macro news caused large disturbances last week, with commodities fluctuating violently and the black - series moving frequently. The slight drop in hot metal supported raw materials, and after the first round of coke price increase, coking coal and coke fluctuated, while iron ore showed resilience [9]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil reached 2521 million tons (a 5.30% increase from the previous period and a 9% increase year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2484.7 million tons (a 1.79% decrease from the previous period and a 41.02% increase year - on - year) [12][16]. - Demand: The daily hot metal production was 227.98 million tons (a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous period and 0.46 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 332.31 million tons (a 6.94% increase from the previous period and a 23.69% increase year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 35.48 days (a 6.51% increase from the previous period and a 6.90% increase year - on - year) [17][20]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 17022.26 million tons (a 1.53% increase from the previous period and a 10.59% increase year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9968.59 million tons (a 6.18% increase from the previous period and a 5.32% increase year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 28.67 days (a 9.97% increase from the previous period and a 13.10% increase year - on - year) [21][25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The coking coal mine operation rate was 89.13% (a 0.22% decrease from the previous period and a 12.82% increase year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.8% (a 1.63% decrease from the previous period and a 32.14% increase year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 12.33 million tons (a 41.10% decrease from the previous period and a 7.78% decrease year - on - year) [27][31]. - Coking Enterprises: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 55 yuan/ton (a 11 - yuan increase from the previous period and an 18 - yuan decrease year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.86% (a 0.76% decrease from the previous period and a 1.71% decrease year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 85.91% (a 0.23% increase from the previous period and a 0.43% decrease year - on - year) [34][38]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 1036.09 million tons (a 4.09% increase from the previous period and a 2.22% increase year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 814.12 million tons (a 1.38% increase from the previous period and a 3.99% decrease year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 286.38 million tons (a 1.04% decrease from the previous period and a 36.82% decrease year - on - year) [39][44]. - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.99 million tons (a 4.12% increase from the previous period and a 50.71% decrease year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 678.19 million tons (a 2.50% increase from the previous period and a 3.22% decrease year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.07 million tons (a 1.02% increase from the previous period and a 9.97% increase year - on - year) [45][50]. - Spot Price: The first - round coke price increase was implemented, and the game between steel and coke continued. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1630 yuan/ton (a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week and a 230 - yuan increase year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1390 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase from the previous period and a 120 - yuan decrease year - on - year) [51][53]. 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal and coke fluctuated [55].