尿素日报：下游刚需采购-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea price is in a narrow - range fluctuation. With the follow - up of agricultural demand, the pressure for pre - Spring Festival order collection is relatively small. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. In January, the supply increased as some gas - based and technology - reformed enterprises resumed production. Agricultural demand for winter fertilizers and green - turning fertilizers is in continuous procurement, and manufacturers are gradually collecting Spring Festival orders. The off - season reserve procurement is in the later stage, with 10% of off - season reserve supplies expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production is affected by environmental protection and slightly decreased, but it remains at a moderately high level overall. The downstream terminal fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving, with an expected decline in production near the Spring Festival. The melamine plant has resumed production, with increased production and rigid demand procurement. Urea manufacturers have achieved a balance between production and sales. The overall inventory in urea plants has slightly decreased and is basically flat, while the port inventory has slightly increased. Affected by the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. There is no new news about the current domestic export quota, and subsequent attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 2, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,787 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was reported at 1,770 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong at 1,770 yuan/ton (- 20), and in Jiangsu at 1,800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (0). The basis in Shandong was - 17 yuan/ton (- 17), in Henan was - 17 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was 13 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 2, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 88.28% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.49 million tons (- 0.11), and the port sample inventory was 14.40 million tons (+ 1.00) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 205 yuan/ton (- 20), and the export profit was 936 yuan/ton (+ 8) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the text other than the export profit data mentioned above 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 2, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.34% (- 1.62%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 66.45% (+ 2.80%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.59 days (+ 0.71) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 94.49 million tons (- 0.11), and the port sample inventory was 14.40 million tons (+ 1.00). Other details about warehouse receipts are not elaborated in the text [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread at low levels - Inter - variety: None [3]