Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-03 06:10Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In 2026, real estate policies remain "stable". Policies for the resident sector focus on "burden - reduction", while those for real - estate enterprises prioritize risk prevention. The phasing - out of the "Three Red Lines" policy and other measures may have contributed to a certain repair of the trading sentiment of real - estate entities [5][10][12]. - Although real - estate bonds have increased in trading volume and average trading duration, the high - valuation ratio remains above 60%. It is recommended to trade real - estate entities cautiously and choose short - duration state - owned enterprises within 1Y [20]. - The credit bond market is active this week. Considering the possible stable and loose funds and the allocation demand of amortized debt funds, the spreads of each term are likely to remain low and may narrow further. Investment strategies include basic allocation of short - term credit products and enhancing returns by considering 5 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds or 5Y urban investment and industrial bonds [27]. - Different regions' urban investment platforms have different investment logics. For example, "economic powerhouses" can appropriately extend the duration to 5 years, regions with debt - resolution policies can consider a duration of less than 3 years, and prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases can choose a 3 - 5Y duration [41][42][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Real - Estate Hot Events 1.1 The Gradual Exit of the "Three Red Lines" Policy - On January 28, 2026, regulatory authorities no longer required real - estate enterprises to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. The "Three Red Lines" policy was introduced in August 2020, which set standards for real - estate financing and implemented differentiated debt - scale management based on enterprises' "line - crossing" situations [5][8]. 1.2 A Review of Real - Estate - Related Policies Since 2026 - For the resident sector, policies since January 1, 2026, include VAT adjustments for housing sales, tax - refund policies for home - replacement, and interest - rate cuts for existing housing loans. For real - estate enterprises, policies focus on risk prevention, such as loan extensions for projects on the "white list" and the implementation of project - company systems and host - bank systems [10][12]. 2. How Far Has the Sentiment of Real - Estate Bonds Recovered? 2.1 Recent Trading Conditions in the Real - Estate Bond Market - In January 2026, the trading volume of industrial urban investment real - estate bonds gradually increased, while that of urban investment real - estate bonds fluctuated. The high - valuation trading ratio of both industrial and urban investment real - estate entities remained between 60 - 70%. The daily peak trading volume of industrial real - estate bonds was 9.332 billion yuan on January 26, and that of urban investment real - estate bonds was 5.344 billion yuan on January 13. The trading activity of industrial real - estate entities increased significantly within the month [14]. 2.2 How Far Has the Trading Sentiment of Popular Industrial Real - Estate Entities Recovered? - Except for Vanke, the average YTM of popular industrial real - estate entities increased in January 2026. Some entities showed a phenomenon of trading pulling up the duration, which may explain the increase in average trading YTM. However, entities like Cinda Investment and Huafa Co., Ltd. had significant increases in trading yields without a significant increase in average duration at the end of the month, and their trading deviated significantly from the valuation, indicating that there may still be a large number of sell - offs [19][20]. 3. Investment Strategies - The credit bond market is active this week, with the trading volume increasing to about 1.74 trillion yuan. The average trading duration of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds in the secondary market has increased. In the primary market, the issuance of urban investment financial bonds has decreased. Considering the possible stable and loose funds and the allocation demand of amortized debt funds, the spreads of each term are likely to remain low and may narrow further [27]. - Allocation plans include basic allocation of short - term credit products with relatively controllable credit risks and enhancing returns by considering 5 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds or 5Y urban investment and industrial bonds. Some 5 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds still show certain relative value, and attention can also be paid to 5Y securities company subordinated bonds and 10Y secondary capital bonds [27][31]. - For urban investment platforms in different regions, different investment logics are proposed. For "economic powerhouses" such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc., the duration can be appropriately extended to 5 years; for regions with significant debt - resolution policies, a duration of less than 3 years can be considered; for prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases, a 3 - 5Y duration is recommended [41][42][43]. 4. Primary Market Tracking - Relevant figures are provided, including this week's credit bond issuance, financial bond issuance, credit bond exchange review and registration, and credit bond association registration completion, but specific data analysis is not elaborated in the summary part [56][59][63][66]. 5. Secondary Market Observation 5.1 The "Volume" of Secondary Market Transactions - Figures show this week's credit bond trading scale and quantity, urban investment bond trading scale by province, industrial bond trading scale by industry, and the weighted trading duration of urban investment and industrial bonds by province [68][72][79][80]. 5.2 The "Price" of Secondary Market Transactions - Figures show this week's urban investment bond yields by term and implied rating, industrial bond yields by enterprise type (state - owned and private enterprises), and financial bond yields by province and variety [81][82][83][84][85].