东南亚指数双周报第17期：新马泰稳健上行，印尼承压走弱-20260203

Performance Overview - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 2.79%, outperforming markets in the UK, Africa, the US, China, Japan, and India, but underperforming Latin America[37] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF fell by 2.41%, underperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 5.20 percentage points[37] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF declined by 9.82%, underperforming by 12.61 percentage points, marking the largest drop in nearly 30 years due to MSCI downgrade warnings and internal debt concerns[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 3.00%, outperforming by 0.21 percentage points, supported by optimistic growth outlooks from the Monetary Authority of Singapore[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF gained 6.76%, outperforming by 3.97 percentage points, reflecting positive signals of marginal recovery in external demand[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF rose by 5.93%, outperforming by 3.14 percentage points, bolstered by a sustained trade surplus and a strong local currency[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF fell by 5.62%, underperforming by 8.41 percentage points, impacted by regulatory concerns and external trade pressures[38] Market Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF trading volume reached 1,058,000 shares, a 92.8% increase from the previous period[16] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF trading volume increased by 201.3%, while iShares MSCI Singapore ETF saw a decrease of 5.7%[16] Economic Indicators - Indonesia's market faced extreme selling pressure due to warnings of a potential downgrade by MSCI and internal policy uncertainties[19] - Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains robust, with an increase in employment and wage growth expectations[23] - Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is maintained at 2.0%, with a slight upward adjustment in export growth expectations[25] - Malaysia reported a trade surplus for 28 consecutive years, with total trade amounting to 3.06 trillion ringgit in 2025[27]