利率半月报（2026.1.19-2026.2.1）：制造业PMI重回荣枯线以下-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell below the荣枯 line again, and the non - manufacturing PMI also declined, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities. The 2026 consumption support policy may weaken, and investment in infrastructure and real estate may continue to drag down the economy. The resilience of foreign trade growth in 2026 needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and the support from new productive forces. The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2][105]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro News - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8pct to 49.3%, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4% (down 0.8pct), and the composite PMI output index was 49.8% (down 0.9pct), all slightly below the荣枯 line. The decline in manufacturing PMI was due to low - temperature weather, holiday effects, pre - exhausted demand, and the pressure on small and medium - sized enterprises [2][19]. - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan (down 1.7%), and the expenditure was 28.7 trillion yuan (up 1%). Tax revenue was 17.6 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), and non - tax revenue was 4.0 trillion yuan (down 11.3%) [4][26]. - In 2025, large - scale industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 7.4 trillion yuan (up 0.6%) and an operating income of 139.20 trillion yuan (up 1.1%), with an operating income profit margin of 5.31% (down 0.03pct) [4][30]. - In January 2026, the Fed decided not to cut interest rates, maintaining the rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman [4][33]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of January 18, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars were 5.0 million units (down 22.0% year - on - year), and the daily average wholesale sales were 5.1 million units (down 28.0% year - on - year). As of January 30, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue was 30771.3 million yuan (down 90.9% year - on - year). As of January 16, the total retail sales of three major home appliances were 107.6 million units (down 36.3% year - on - year), and the total retail sales were 24.7 billion yuan (down 32.6% year - on - year) [34][38]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of January 31, the 7 - day average migration scale index was 488.4 (down 24.8% year - on - year). As of January 25, the weekly civil aviation flight volume was 12.4 million flights (down 7.5% year - on - year). As of January 30, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3938.6 million person - times (up 95.9% year - on - year). As of January 25, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 43.1 billion pieces (up 52.7% year - on - year), the delivery volume was 42.3 billion pieces (up 12.2% year - on - year), the railway freight volume was 7441.9 million tons (up 1.2% year - on - year), and the highway truck traffic volume was 5425.2 million vehicles (up 38.4% year - on - year) [41][47]. 3.2.3 Industry - As of January 30, the iron ore inventory was 17758.3 million tons (up 11.0% year - on - year), the rebar inventory was 326.4 million tons (down 27.5% year - on - year), and the float glass enterprise inventory was 5256.4 million tons (down 12.6% year - on - year). As of January 22, the daily coal consumption of key power plants was 617.0 million tons (up 8.2% year - on - year). As of January 30, the apparent steel consumption was 801.7 million tons (up 63.7% year - on - year), the apparent rebar consumption was 176.4 million tons (up 34.1% year - on - year), and the apparent wire rod consumption was 74.6 million tons (up 22.0% year - on - year). As of January 28, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 73.8% (down 1.5pct year - on - year). As of January 29, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0% (up 2.0pct year - on - year), the soda ash operating rate was 84.9% (down 2.2pct year - on - year), and the PVC operating rate was 77.0% (down 3.9pct year - on - year) [50][52][61]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of January 30, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 161.0 million square meters (up 129.4% year - on - year). As of January 23, the weekly second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 180.5 million square meters (down 7.8% year - on - year). As of January 25, the weekly land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 779.3 million square meters (down 51.7% year - on - year), and the total land transaction price was 127.4 billion yuan (down 73.2% year - on - year) [63][66][69]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of February 1, the average pork wholesale price was 18.6 yuan/kg (down 10.3% year - on - year, up 4.0% from 4 weeks ago). As of January 30, the average vegetable wholesale price was 5.6 yuan/kg (up 1.4% year - on - year, down 1.2% from 4 weeks ago), the average price of 6 key fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg (up 5.9% year - on - year, up 0.4% from 4 weeks ago), the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 691.0 yuan/ton (down 9.4% year - on - year, up 0.1% from 4 weeks ago), the average WTI crude oil spot price was 62.5 US dollars/barrel (down 16.2% year - on - year, up 8.3% from 4 weeks ago), the average rebar spot price was 3202.3 yuan/ton (down 3.7% year - on - year, down 0.9% from 4 weeks ago), the average iron ore spot price was 812.8 yuan/ton (down 0.9% year - on - year, down 0.3% from 4 weeks ago), and the average glass spot price was 13.1 yuan/square meter (down 20.1% year - on - year, up 1.8% from 4 weeks ago) [74][79]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On January 30, overnight Shibor was 1.33%, R001 was 1.51%, R007 was 1.64%, DR001 was 1.33%, DR007 was 1.59%, IBO001 was 1.35%, IBO007 was 1.61%. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bonds were 1.30%/1.58%/1.81%/2.29%, and the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year policy financial bonds were 1.58%/1.80%/1.99%/2.42%. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.36%/1.72%/1.99%. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.50%/1.60%/1.52%/1.63%. The 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.26%, 2.25%, 4.53%, and 2.92% respectively. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 6.97/6.95 [85][86][93]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since 2026, the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has decreased overall. On January 30, the estimated median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds was about 3.1 years (down about 0.1 year from January 16), and the estimated median duration of credit bond funds was about 1.7 years (down about 0.6 year from January 16) [4][98][102]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. The 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities of ultra - long bonds, allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupon income, and pay attention to multi - asset investment opportunities [4][105].