格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to remain oscillating, with supply pressure limiting the rebound height. The reference range for the 05 contract is between 1740 - 1840 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped 11 yuan to 1787 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1770 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 7395 lots to 218,000 lots, while short - position holdings decreased by 1995 lots to 239,000 lots [1] 3.2. Important Information 3.2.1. Supply - The daily production of the urea industry is 21.11 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.63 tons compared to the same period last year. The daily operating rate is 89.66%, a 2.65% increase from 87.01% in the same period last year [1] 3.2.2. Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 94.49 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease month - on - month. The sample inventory at urea ports is 13.4 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2.3. Demand - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 41.3%, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month, and the operating rate of melamine is 66.4%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [1] 3.2.4. Tendering and Import - Export - On January 2, NFL in India held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total tender volume of 362 tons, including 159 tons on the east coast and 202 tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes from Koch were CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast. In December 2025, urea imports were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% decrease month - on - month, and the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% decrease month - on - month. Urea exports were 27.83 tons, a 53.75% decrease month - on - month, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% decrease month - on - month [1] 3.2.5. Oil Price - The US and Iran are keeping dialogue and consultation options, alleviating concerns about supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, leading to a fall in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.21 dollars/barrel to 65.21 dollars/barrel, a 0.32% decrease month - on - month; the ICE Brent oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.02 dollars/barrel to 70.69 dollars/barrel, a 0.03% decrease month - on - month. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 15.9 to 482.9 yuan/barrel, and then fell 12.9 to 470 yuan/barrel at night [1] 3.3. Market Logic - Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton. New orders of urea factories were well - pre - sold, but high - price transactions significantly weakened. Supply pressure limits the rebound height of urea prices [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - The recommendation is to wait and see for the time being [1]