海外扰动暂息甲醇回归基本面显著下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol market has returned to its fundamental situation and declined significantly after the overseas disturbances subsided. The report maintains the judgment of the methanol market's range - bound movement, suggesting to pay attention to the progress of the Iran situation, the operation of domestic coastal downstream MTO plants, and inventory changes [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The domestic methanol market shows a significant differentiation between the inland and coastal areas. In the inland market, the supply - side production has been at a high level, with the domestic methanol operating load at 91.73% on February 2, 2026. The inventory is in a de - stocking state, with the inventory at 42.47 tons (a 3.12% month - on - month decrease) as of January 30, 2026. The weak trend is expected to continue before the Spring Festival. In the coastal market, the import volume is expected to decrease, but the port inventory is still increasing, reaching 147.21 tons (a 1% month - on - month increase) as of January 30, 2026, mainly due to the weak downstream MTO demand [3] Overseas Disturbance Analysis - The situation in the Middle East has eased, increasing the probability of the restart of Iranian methanol plants from February to March, which may increase the domestic methanol import pressure and end the de - stocking window earlier. The U.S. natural gas price has dropped after the cold wave, and the methanol production cost, plant operation, and logistics transportation in the U.S. have returned to the pre - cold - wave level, which is expected to lead to a decline in the outer - market methanol price [3] Market Sentiment Analysis - The easing of the Iran situation has affected multiple fields, leading to a collective weak operation of related varieties, and the market sentiment is inclined to short - allocation. Although the Iran situation has eased, there is still uncertainty before it is completely resolved. The methanol market has declined significantly following the weak fundamentals, but the MTO profit is expected to gradually recover, and the restart of the Shandong Hengtong plant may boost the market [3]