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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, influenced by the reaffirmation of the strong - dollar stance by Baysent and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair, the US dollar index strengthened, leading to a concentrated sell - off of precious metals. London spot gold fell nearly 20%, and silver dropped by as much as 40%. Global major stock markets were also under pressure [3]. - The sharp correction of precious metals is due to the structural fragility accumulated during the previous rapid - rise phase. However, the logic of global liquidity easing may not reverse, and the "depreciation trade" macro - theme is not likely to enter a head - wind period easily. The Fed Chair nominee's operation space on the balance sheet is restricted by fiscal realities, and shrinking the balance sheet may increase debt pressure, which may not be bearish for gold in the long - term [3]. - The current market panic may provide an opportunity for rational investors. After the panic subsides and the market structure stabilizes, investors can consider gradually deploying to seize the allocation opportunities [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Main Interest Rates - The pricing of interest rate cuts remained stable last week. The money market still factored in the possibility of two 25 - bps interest rate cuts this year, despite the nomination of Kevin Warsh. His historical views are considered hawkish, but the market's pricing of him did not change substantially. He is expected to cut interest rates in the early stage of his tenure [5][7]. Yield Curve - Last week, the yields of US Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged. The 30 - year UST yield rose 4.8 bps to 4.87%, the 10 - year UST yield rose 1.43 bps to 4.24%, and the 2 - year UST yield fell 6.5 bps to 3.5%. The yield curve steepened, which is related to the market's digestion of Kevin Warsh's possible appointment [16]. Fed Reserves - The usage of ONRRP last week was $9.63 billion, up $8.14 billion from the previous value. The Fed's reserve balance on Wednesday last week was $2.883 trillion, down $74 billion from the previous week [21]. Long - and Short - Term US Treasury Bond Yield Positions - As of January 27, the positions of long - and short - term US Treasury bond yields were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures increased by 6,123 lots to 1,218,999 lots, and the non - commercial net short positions of 10 - year UST futures increased by 70,511 lots to 726,151 lots. As of the week of January 26, the sentiment of JPM Treasury net - long investors was 5, slightly up from the previous week [25]. US Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS diverged. The 5 - year TIPS yield closed at 1.26%, down 10 bps from the previous week, and the 10 - year TIPS yield closed at 1.9%, down 2 bps from the previous week [32]. US Dollar Index and Liquidity - Last week, the US dollar index and the gold price moved in the same direction. Gold fell 2%, and the US dollar index fell 0.4% to 97, with their rolling correlation decreasing. The US dollar depreciated 0.6% against the yen, 0.2% against the euro, and 0.3% against the pound [40]. - As of January 27, the total position of the US dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,942 contracts to 18,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 71 contracts to 22,000 contracts. The long - side power was dominant. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long - position ratio was 57%, up from the previous week, and the short - position ratio was 70%, down from the previous week [44]. - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap of the yen and the euro increased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore US dollar liquidity decreased [47]. Inflation High - Frequency Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.67. The decline in copper prices was less than that of gold, indicating a marginal increase in global aggregate demand momentum [54]. Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio oscillated higher because the decline of gold was greater than that of silver last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased because the decline of gold was greater than that of copper; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased month - on - month because crude oil rose and gold fell last week [63]. - From the perspective of rolling correlation, the correlation between gold and crude oil increased, while the correlation between gold and the US dollar index and copper decreased [70][71]. - Last week, silver showed extreme internal - external premium, and the domestic buying was strong [76]. Inventory and Positions - In terms of inventory, last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 35.749 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 396,000 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 405.887 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.538 million ounces. The SHFE gold inventory was about 103 tons, with no month - on - month change, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 111.2 tons to 462.6 tons [81]. - The SPDR gold ETF position increased by 0.57 tons to 1,087.1 tons, and the current position scale is near the lower median of the past 10 years; the SLV silver ETF position decreased by 566.6 tons to 15,523.4 tons, and it is currently at a medium - to - high level [87]. - The total COMEX gold position decreased by 39,541 lots to 488,000 lots. The non - commercial long positions decreased by 43,672 lots to 252,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,298 lots to 48,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side power of gold allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long - position ratio decreased to around 52%, and the non - commercial short - position ratio increased to around 10% [92]. - The total COMEX silver position increased by 4,617 lots to 157,000 lots. The non - commercial long positions increased by 510 lots to 44,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,021 lots to 19,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side power of silver allocation. In terms of position ratio, the non - commercial long - position ratio decreased to around 27.8%, and the non - commercial short - position ratio increased to around 12.6% [98]. Deferred Fees and Lease Rates - Information about gold and silver T + D deferred fee directions and implied lease rates is not summarized due to lack of detailed data analysis content.