碳酸锂产业日报-20260203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and slightly improved demand. The raw - material end has strong price - holding sentiment, and the supply is relatively stable. The demand is affected by price fluctuations, with stronger downstream inquiry and restocking willingness at low prices. The overall industry inventory is slightly reduced, and spot transactions have improved compared to the previous period. In terms of options, the market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis with a shrinking green bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 148,100 yuan/ton, up 15,660 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 141,369 hands, up 9,954 hands; the position of the main contract is 355,770 hands, up 8,072 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 900 yuan/ton, down 3,520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 33,084 hands/ton, up 843 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 153,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 150,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 5,400 yuan/ton, down 17,660 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,020 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 15,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh; the price of manganese - acid lithium is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 132,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 206,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 186,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 201,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 50%, down 1 percentage point; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 60%, down 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 47.94%, up 0.45 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles or 133.10%; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, unchanged; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 2.615 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 186,905 contracts, up 15,190 contracts; the total put position is 153,334 contracts, down 11,313 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of the total position is 82.04%, down 13.8454 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.80%, up 0.0604 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in January 2026 rose to 52.6, much higher than the expected 48.5. The "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" special event from February 15 to 23, 2026, was launched by nine units including the Ministry of Commerce. Tesla's sales slump in Europe continued in 2026, with sales in France down 42% in January and new car registrations in Norway down 88%. The mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Requirements for Automobile Door Handles" will be implemented next year, which will bring major changes to the popular hidden door handle design [2]