食品饮料行业周报（2026、1、26-2026、2、1）：旺季预期积极，关注春节备货行情-20260203

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery opportunity in the restaurant sector, with overall performance in food and beverage categories showing improvement in Q4 2025. Sales of frozen foods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with specific categories like hot pot balls, frozen sausages, and shrimp slides seeing sales growth of approximately 15%, 45%, and 55% respectively [3][4] - The listing of "Mingming Hen Mang" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has attracted attention to the snack sector, with the company being the largest chain retailer in China, maintaining rapid growth and expanding its market share [4] - Raw milk prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, with the average price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a slight increase. The report suggests a positive outlook for meat and dairy prices in 2026 due to favorable import policies [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [5][11] - The liquor sub-sector performed well, increasing by 3.86% [5][11] 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the retail price of milk was 12.20 yuan/liter, and yogurt was 15.88 yuan/kg. The price of fresh milk was 3.04 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.60% [28] - The price of live pigs was 12.30 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.10% [28] 3. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the profit of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry decreased by 9.1%, with total revenue of 1,468.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [56] - The wholesale and retail industry's added value reached 14.6 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5% year-on-year, marking a historical high [56] 4. Core Company Dynamics - "Gu Jing Gong Jiu" announced a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 529 million yuan. "Yi Ming Food" expects a net profit increase of 62.38% to 90.02% [57]