瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and stable demand, suggesting light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The Shanghai aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand, with the option market sentiment being bullish, and it is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2] - The casting aluminum alloy fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and weak demand, and light - position short - term long trading on dips is also suggested [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,810 yuan/ton, up 775 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,809 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 165 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan; that of alumina is - 187 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 226,641 lots, down 11,366 lots; those of alumina are 376,954 lots, up 1,171 lots [2] - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 56,525 tons, unchanged; the total alumina inventory is 265,223 tons, up 42,736 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation is 3,056.5 dollars/ton, down 79 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 497,175 tons, up 1,450 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.79, up 0.44 [2] - The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract is 22,215 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 66,913 tons, down 812 tons [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 23,290 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 23,680 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan [2] - The basis of casting aluminum alloy is 1,435 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 520 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.51% [2] - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,200 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap is 17,850 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,536.20 tons, up 12 tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.31%, up 0.1% [2] - The aluminum product production is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54 tons, down 3 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 tons, down 1.60 tons; the built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 tons, unchanged [2] - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the automobile production is 341.15 tons, down 10.75 tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 40.16%, up 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.31%, up 0.92% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 28.76%, up 0.0167; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.84, up 0.2113 [2] Industry News - The Chinese government approves the "Spatial Coordination Plan for the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area (2023 - 2035)" [2] - The US manufacturing industry returns to the expansion range, with the ISM manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6 [2] - The second - hand housing markets in key cities in January show signs of recovery, while the new housing markets are relatively dull [2] - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce launch the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" event from February 15 to 23 [2] - The China Electricity Council predicts that the solar power generation capacity will exceed coal - fired power in 2026 [2]