流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：2月政府债供给节奏前置

Group 1 - The liquidity situation in February is expected to be better than in January, with MLF and reverse repos maturing decreasing from 1.9 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan, and net financing of government bonds estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan [9][15] - The issuance of local government bonds is significantly front-loaded in February, with an expected issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week, and net financing of 720.9 billion yuan, including 579.7 billion yuan in local bonds [15][45] - By February 8, the cumulative issuance of local bonds is expected to reach 1.443 trillion yuan, with 778.7 billion yuan of ultra-long local bonds issued, accounting for 54% of the total [15][45] Group 2 - The local bond issuance plan for Q1 2026 totals 2.6549 trillion yuan, with monthly plans of 809 billion, 884.9 billion, and 960.9 billion yuan for January, February, and March respectively [15][49] - There is a strong willingness among regions to maintain a lower limit for bonds with maturities under 10 years, reflecting considerations for fiscal cost control, while there is less intervention for ultra-long bonds [16][46] - In January 2026, insurance companies had a net purchase of local bonds amounting to 135.4 billion yuan, compared to 120.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [16][46]