Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-03 08:41Report Summary - Report Date: February 3, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Chen Sijia [3] - Futures Practicing Certificate Number: F03118799 - Futures Investment Consulting Practicing Certificate Number: Z0022803 Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, with attention focused on the 2.43 - 2.55 range [3]. - Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has intensified, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has rebounded, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other sectors have some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream procurement has become less active, and domestic social inventories are stable with a slight increase, while LME zinc inventories are stable and the spot premium remains low [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions and price adjustments, both long and short positions are trading cautiously. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,960 yuan/ton, with a change of 445 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,318.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 51.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 203,753 lots, a decrease of 11,573 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,412 lots, a decrease of 7,195 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai zinc are 0 tons, with no change. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 65,154 tons, a decrease of 7,997 tons, and the LME inventory is 109,100 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 25,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 990 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 5.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.06 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production value from the ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons. 4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 1.113 million tons, an increase of 41,000 tons. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 41.66%, a decrease of 1.7%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 41.65%, a decrease of 1.7% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 39.69%, an increase of 5.89%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 18.58%, an increase of 3.75% [3]. 7. Industry News - In January, China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high. Positive signals include growth in new orders (including export orders) and a three - month first rebound in employment. However, business confidence dropped to a nine - month low, input costs had the strongest increase in four months, and product sales prices rose for the first time in 14 months [3]. - In January, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI index soared from 47.9 in the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. It was mainly boosted by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a one - year high but remained in the contraction range, and the price - paid index reached a four - month high [3]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. His core proposition is to push the Federal Reserve to significantly shrink its huge $6.6 trillion balance sheet and seek a new agreement with the Treasury to clarify the central bank's independent boundaries and prevent fiscal monetization [3].