固定收益部市场日报-20260203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Macau gaming industry showed a solid start in 2026 with a 24% year-on-year growth in January's GGR, reaching 90.7% of the January 2019 level. The 2026 GGR target of MOP236bn seems conservative based on the 2025 growth momentum [7][10][11]. - In the fixed - income market, there were various price movements across different sectors such as Chinese/HK higher - yielding space, Chinese properties, SE Asian space, etc. Some bonds tightened while others widened or declined in price [2]. - Chinese IG KUAISH/MEITUA recovered and tightened 1 - 3bps in the morning [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - In the FRN space, there were balanced two - way flows across AU/JP financial names, MAYMK, 2 - 3yr Korean quasi - sovereign issues, and HYNMTR, with the latter closing 1 - 2bps tighter. Front - end to belly Chinese AMC papers, POE/TMTs, and belly financial papers saw initial selling, widening spreads by 1 - 3bps, but spreads largely closed unchanged. TW lifers widened 3 - 5bps, and the Macau gaming complex had a range of - 0.2pt to + 0.1pt change. In Chinese/HK higher - yielding space, WESCHI 26 rose 1.4pts and WESCHI 28 edged 0.2pt higher, while EHICAR 26 - 27 dropped 0.7 - 2.3pts. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were 0.9 - 1.7pts lower. In SE Asian space, VLLPM 27 - 29 dived 7.6 - 9.6pts [2]. - In the morning, Chinese IG KUAISH/MEITUA recovered and tightened 1 - 3bps. RMs were buying perps, and PBs were switching out of short - dated to call EU AT1s. ACPM 4.85 Perp/FAEACO 12.814 Perp were 0.7 - 0.9pt lower, and NWDEVL 27 - 28 recovered 0.5 - 0.6pt [3]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+0.54%), Dow (+1.05%), and Nasdaq (+0.56%) were higher. The S&P Global Manufacturing January 2026 PMI was 52.4 (higher than the expected 51.9), ISM Manufacturing January 2026 Prices was 59.0 (lower than the expected 59.3), and ISM Manufacturing January 2026 PMI was 52.6 (higher than the expected 48.5). The UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.57%/3.83%/4.29%/4.90% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) in January 2026 increased 24.0% year - on - year to MOP22.6bn, representing 90.7% of the January 2019 GGR and being the highest January figure since 2019. The 2026 GGR target of MOP236bn seems conservative as GGR in 2025 increased 9.1% to MOP247.4bn, exceeding the revised forecast of MOP228bn. The 2026 forecast represents a 3.5% year - on - year growth from the 2025 revised GGR forecast. In 2025, Macau's tourist arrival was 40.1mn, a 15% year - on - year increase and exceeding the 2019 record [7][10][11]. - Macau gaming bonds are considered lower - beta and good carry plays. Top picks are MPELs and STCITYs, and WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield pick - up plays. The report is neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [13]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: CMBC International Funding (HK) issued USD300mn with a 3 - year tenor at SOFR + 60, rated - / - /BBB - [17]. - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline on this day [18]. News and Market Color - There were 89 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB88bn. No credit bonds were issued on 2 Feb 2025 due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Trump said he would roll back 25% punitive tariffs and cut the levy on Indian goods to 18% from 25% in return for India stopping buying Russian oil. China's local government debt increased 15% in 2025 and remains manageable. Indonesia's coal exports declined 19.7% last year to USD24.5bn due to falling global prices. Huatai Securities raised USD698.6mn by selling HKD and RMB - denominated guaranteed bonds due 2028. UPL Limited 9MFY26 EBITDA rose 22% year - on - year to INR59.1bn (cUSD648mn) [19][20].