瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of cotton in the domestic market is gradually increasing as the quantity of officially inspected cotton has exceeded 7.2 million tons. The trading volume of imported cotton, mainly Brazilian cotton, has slowed down due to the approaching Spring Festival and some textile enterprises entering the holiday mode. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term considering the approaching long holiday [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,650 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 126,623 lots, down 9,362 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 1,489 lots, down 87 lots - Cotton main contract open interest is 717,880 lots, down 1,626 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 4,497 lots, down 387 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,400 sheets, up 75 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets [2] Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex: 3128B) is 15,987 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan; China's yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,455 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff) is 12,367 yuan/ton; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,596 yuan/ton - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,074 yuan/ton, down 322 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) is 22,641 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,468 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 848,000 tons, down 2,000 tons - The monthly import volume of cotton is 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,391 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7847 million tons, up 1.1011 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn is 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth is 33.76 days, up 1.42 days - The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 13.57%, up 0.14%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 13.57%, up 0.12% - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 16.92%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.44%, up 0.11% [2] Industry News - The national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 5.6487 million tons, down 49,400 tons (0.87% decrease) week - on - week. The commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 4.5704 million tons, down 91,300 tons (1.96% decrease) week - on - week; the commercial cotton in the inland area is 582,900 tons, up 21,700 tons (3.87% increase) week - on - week - ICE cotton futures closed lower on Monday, pressured by a stronger US dollar and broad selling in the commodity market. The March cotton futures contract closed down 0.50 cents, or 0.80%, at 62.67 cents per pound [2] Imported Cotton Port Inventory - As of January 29, the import cotton inventory in major ports increased 4.25% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 495,400 tons. The inventory in Shandong's Qingdao, Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses is 413,000 tons, down 2.93% year - on - year; the inventory in Jiangsu's Zhangjiagang port and surrounding warehouses is about 35,000 tons, and the inventory in other ports is about 29,400 tons [2]