Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-03 08:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 87.05 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion, with projected revenues of 777.1 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 1,104.5 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 34.0% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 7.5% in 2025, and then a recovery with growth rates of 27.4% and 23.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant decline in January's sales figures, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles dropping by 30.1% year-on-year and 50.0% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - The expected growth rates for these years are 29.0%, 11.5%, 13.3%, and 12.6% respectively [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 6.43 CNY in 2027 [3][20]. Market Performance - The report notes that BYD's high-end brand, Fangchengbao, has seen significant sales growth, with the Ti 7 model alone achieving sales of 100,000 units, marking it as a key growth driver for the company's high-end strategy [8]. - International sales are also on the rise, with January exports of new energy vehicles reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, despite a month-on-month decline of 24.5% [8]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end brand positioning and expanding its international footprint, with new factories being established in Brazil and plans for further expansion in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancement and brand loyalty in solidifying BYD's position in the high-end market [8].