瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Global and Canadian rapeseed supply - demand patterns are relatively loose, which restricts market prices. The pressure from the US on Canada may affect Canadian rapeseed oil exports, but there are high expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations, which support the Canadian rapeseed market. The US bio - diesel policy may be beneficial, and the supply of Malaysian palm oil is decreasing this month with increased exports. Indian palm oil imports in January are expected to rise significantly [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the policy still has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. The opening of COFCO's Australian rapeseed production line and the purchase of 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed by Chinese importers are expected to increase supply pressure. After a previous rebound, rapeseed meal has declined again and is in a weak trend [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, due to the decline of external oils, rapeseed oil has declined recently, and market volatility has increased. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract): 9215 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; rapeseed meal futures closing price (active contract): 2249 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan. Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9): 80 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9): - 38 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed oil main contract position: 285363 lots, up 1028 lots; rapeseed meal main contract position: 922401 lots, up 9439 lots. Rapeseed oil net long position of the top 20 futures holders: - 14551 lots, down 2962 lots; rapeseed meal net long position of the top 20 futures holders: - 229177 lots, down 22631 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts: 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts: 0 sheets, unchanged. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active): 645.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2 Canadian dollars; domestic rapeseed futures closing price (active contract): 6007 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu: 9970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong: 2520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. Average rapeseed oil price: 10076.25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; import cost of imported rapeseed: 7794.48 yuan/ton, down 84.91 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. Oil - meal ratio: 3.93, up 0.02. Rapeseed oil main contract basis: 755 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis: 271 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Fourth - grade soybean oil spot price in Nanjing: 8640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference: 1330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. Palm oil (24 - degree) spot price in Guangdong: 9160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference: 810 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - Soybean meal spot price in Zhangjiagang: 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference: 580 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; domestic rapeseed production forecast: 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit: 291 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.1 million tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 0.53%, unchanged. Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal: 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 0.2 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 0.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons. Rapeseed oil inventory in East China: 24.4 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in East China: 10.1 million tons, down 2 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 0.2 million tons, unchanged; rapeseed meal inventory in South China: 29.2 million tons, up 1.4 million tons. Rapeseed oil weekly提货量: - 0.03 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量: 0.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. Edible vegetable oil production: 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal: 20.28%, up 1.12%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal: 20.28%, up 1.13%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 18.11%, up 0.03%; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 13.86%, down 0.02% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil: 15.92%, down 0.13%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil: 15.93%, down 0.12%. 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 23.61%, up 2.11; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 17.59%, up 0.7 [2]. Industry News - On February 2nd (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures weakened. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract fell 3.00 Canadian dollars, settling at 645.00 Canadian dollars per ton. The May rapeseed futures contract fell 2.80 Canadian dollars, settling at 656.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - There are high expectations of a bumper South American soybean harvest, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, due to the increasing demand for soybean oil in bio - fuels, US soybean crushing remains strong, supporting the US soybean market price [2].