Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-03 09:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rebounded collectively. The macro and commodity sentiment improved, driving up the futures prices. However, after the trading sentiment stabilized, the increase brought by the news was reversed, and the futures prices declined due to the weakening support on the spot side [1]. - China's export competitiveness is continuously strengthening, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm, and control risks [1]. - The current spot price is supported by the slight price increase of multiple shipping companies and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy on contracts after April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - EC2604, the main contract, closed up 5.22%, and the far - month contracts closed up between 1 - 3%. The EC2604 - EC2606 spread was +32.70, and the EC2604 - EC2608 spread was - 360.00. The EC contract basis was - 53.30. The main contract's holding volume increased by 423 to 34,229 lots [1]. Spot Market - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1,792.14, down 67.17 points from the previous week, a 3.6% month - on - month decline. The SCFI (composite index) decreased by 141.11 points week - on - week, and the CCFI (composite index) decreased by 33.16 points week - on - week. Maersk's cabin opening price for weeks 7 - 9 decreased by $100 compared to week 6, while other shipping companies such as COSCO and CMA also continued to lower their prices [1]. Industry News - Iran may start high - level nuclear negotiations with the United States in the next few days. It is expected that the US envoy and the Iranian foreign minister will meet in Istanbul on February 6 to discuss a "possible nuclear agreement" [1]. - The Fed's Bostic said that no interest rate cuts are expected in 2026, and it is too early to claim that the inflation target has been achieved. The policy rate needs to be maintained at a moderately restrictive level [1]. - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" special event from February 15 to 23, aiming to create a comprehensive and enjoyable Spring Festival consumption feast [1]. - Starting from April 1, 2026, all listed photovoltaic products will no longer enjoy the VAT export tax - refund preferential policy, which may lead to a rush to ship and boost long - term contract cargo volume [1]. Geopolitical and Economic Outlook - Trump said that the US "expects" to reach an agreement with Iran and end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved [1]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the economic recovery of the eurozone, and inflation is close to the target level, which supports the expectation that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future [1]. Key Data to Watch - Eurozone January CPI annual rate preliminary value at 18:00 on February 4. - Eurozone December PPI monthly rate at 18:00 on February 4. - US January ADP employment data (in ten thousands) at 21:15 on February 4 [1].