瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman has caused a huge shock in the market, its direct impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited. The intensified volatility of the equity market may push the short - term risk preference to decline, reducing the capital diversion pressure on the bond market. Coupled with the fact that the PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating that the weak economic recovery trend continues. In the context of limited external shocks and the interweaving of internal sentiment and fundamentals, the bond market may return to a volatile pattern after a short - term recovery [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.260，环比上涨0.02%，成交量72474，环比减少6023；TF主力收盘价105.905，环比上涨0.06%，成交量60771，环比增加3421；TS主力收盘价102.414，环比上涨0.03%，成交量32791，环比减少883；TL主力收盘价111.960，环比下跌0.1%，成交量94907，环比减少21790 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.14，环比上涨0.00；T03 - TL03价差为 - 3.70，环比上涨0.11；T2603 - 2606价差为0.01，环比下跌0.03；TF03 - T03价差为 - 2.36，环比上涨0.03；TF2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.03，环比上涨0.01；TS03 - T03价差为 - 5.85，环比上涨0.01 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量253976，环比下跌0.01；T前20名多头241088，环比下跌0.02；T前20名空头238457，环比增加1819；T前20名净空仓2219，环比增加2574；TF主力持仓量134147，环比增加3608；TF前20名多头142860，环比增加3929；TF前20名空头136970，环比增加5885；TF前20名净空仓 - 5890，环比减少1956；TS主力持仓量61998，环比减少1616；TS前20名多头59586，环比增加96；TS前20名空头52590，环比增加94；TS前20名净空仓 - 6996，环比增加2；TL主力持仓量127313，环比减少2868；TL前20名多头142289，环比增加839；TL前20名空头140314，环比减少2272；TL前20名净空仓 - 1975，环比增加3111 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 250018.IB(6y）净价100.6082，环比上涨0.0216；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，环比上涨0.0323；250014.IB(4y）净价100.1151，环比上涨0.0173；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比上涨0.0205；250017.IB(2y)净价100.1168，环比上涨0.0239；240022.IB(2y)净价100.156，环比上涨0.0046；210005.IB(17y)净价126.3679，环比下跌0.1100；210014.IB(18y)净价123.215，环比下跌0.1100 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.2950%，环比上涨0.50bp；3y收益率1.3950%，环比持平；5y收益率1.5725%，环比持平；7y收益率1.6875%，环比上涨1.05bp；10y收益率1.8100%，环比上涨0.90bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3228%，环比下跌4.16bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3170%，环比下跌4.80bp；银质押7天利率1.4833%，环比下跌0.59bp；Shibor7天利率1.4880%，环比上涨0.30bp；银质押14天利率1.5600%，环比上涨3.10bp；Shibor14天利率1.5110%，环比上涨0.20bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y LPR利率3.00%，环比持平；5y LPR利率3.5%，环比持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1055亿，到期规模4020亿，净回笼2965亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 商务部等九单位启动2026“乐购新春”春节特别活动，时间为2月15至23日；1月北京、上海二手房成交量同比增幅均超20%，深圳二手房成交环比增长16%，同比增长7%，杭州二手房成交环同比明显增长，重点城市新房市场表现相对平淡；中共中央、国务院批复同意《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035年）》 [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - 2/2 23:00关注美国1月ISM制造业指数；2/5 21:15关注欧洲央行利率决议 [3]