全球股市立体投资策略周报 2月第1期：鹰派沃什交易落地，股市波动率攀升-20260203

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing of gains, with MSCI Global up by 0.2%, MSCI Developed Markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.4% [8][11] - In developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index performed the best with a gain of 4.7%, while Germany's DAX was the weakest, down by 1.5% [8] - In the emerging markets, the Hang Seng Index was the top performer, increasing by 2.4%, while Mexico's MXX declined by 0.9% [8] Trading Sentiment - Global markets experienced increased trading volumes, with major indices showing a rise in volatility [24] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a decrease in short-selling ratio to 12.9%, indicating a high investor sentiment [24][27] - North American investment sentiment reached historical highs, with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 92.6% [24][27] Fund Flows - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered hawkish trading expectations [55] - As of January 30, market expectations indicate the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates 2.1 times in 2026, a slight decrease from the previous week [55][58] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of HKD 5.9 billion, with significant contributions from the Stock Connect program [62][64] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -2.1% to -2.0% [66] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was raised from +10.5% to +11.8%, with the industrial sector seeing the largest upward revision of +7.9% [66] - In the European market, the Eurozone STOXX50's 2025 EPS forecast improved from -4.5% to -4.4% [66]