瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Shanghai has initiated the work of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, with Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Xuhui District as the first - batch pilot areas. The weekly output of rebar has increased slightly again, with a capacity utilization rate of 43.8% and an output of 1.9983 million tons. The apparent demand continues to decline, and the inventory has increased again. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the shrinking demand and increasing inventory put pressure on steel prices. Meanwhile, continue to pay attention to the impact of macro - policies on the steel market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level, and the green bar is stable. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,099 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,805,126 hands, up 21,029 hands; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 37,645 hands, up 195 hands; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is - 52 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 37,931 tons, up 2,090 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 166 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (weighed) is 3,344 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 161 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 793 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.1852 million tons, up 2.5567 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 441,400 tons, up 22,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.784 million tons, up 164,100 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.45%, down 0.08 percentage points. The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.9983 million tons, up 2,800 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 43.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.4913 million tons, up 1,500 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.264 million tons, up 232,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 68.75%, down 2.08 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons. The net export volume of steel is 10.78 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 3.8%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 17.2%, down 1.3 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 2.2%, down 1.1 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.5989 billion square meters, down 38.24 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587.7 million square meters, down 53.13 million square meters. The area of unsold commercial housing is 402.36 million square meters, down 8.75 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On February 3, the Office of the State Council Safety Committee issued an urgent notice to deploy all regions, relevant departments, and central enterprises to implement General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions, do a good job in work safety around the Spring Festival, strengthen major risk prevention and control, and resolutely prevent and contain group - death and group - injury, especially major and extremely serious production safety accidents. According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, recently 10 steel mills have released Spring Festival maintenance plans. Among them, Chengshi Iron and Steel of Dudu Group plans to stop production and conduct maintenance from February 1 to 28, 2026, reducing the output of construction steel by about 170,000 tons [2].