浙商证券浙商早知道-20260203

Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.18%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.93%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.86%, and the Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.22% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on February 3 were comprehensive (+5.63%), defense and military industry (+4.42%), machinery and equipment (+3.98%), building materials (+3.52%), and steel (+3.28%). The banking sector was the worst performer, declining by 0.85% [4][5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 3 was 25,656 billion, with a net inflow of 9.52 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][5] Key Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for January 2026 indicates that the economy is in a data vacuum period, with macro information primarily coming from price and financial data. It is expected that January's prices will recover but with limited elasticity, and while the overall financial volume is not poor, the "opening red" characteristic is not strong [6] - The market anticipates a "credit opening red," but the report suggests that this characteristic is not clearly evident. The demand side remains weak in January [6] - In terms of major assets, the equity market is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by liquidity, with a structural market characterized by low volatility dividends and technology growth. The bond market is projected to see the 10-year government bond yield fluctuate between 1.5% and 2% [6] Industry Commentary - The Chinese New Year film lineup has been preliminarily set, with attention on companies such as Bona Film Group, Hengdian Film, Happiness Blue Sea, and Damai Entertainment. The report highlights the competition for the New Year’s red envelope among major companies [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in the New Year film lineup and the ongoing AI application debate. Companies in the gaming sector, such as Perfect World, Huatuo, and Gigabit, are noted for their annual forecasts meeting or exceeding expectations, with Giant Network achieving a new high of 10 million daily active users [7][8]