瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the cutting - off period, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the production - reducing period, with the total supply showing a contraction. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating, and both bonded and general trade warehouses are accumulating inventory. The high prices of various raw materials have led to cost pressure, and some enterprises have arranged the "Spring Festival" holiday from the end of January to the beginning of February, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,950 - 13,350. Short - term commodity prices are greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,180 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,135 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,085 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 153,505 lots, down 2,489 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 23,350 lots, down 4,303 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 42,056 lots, down 1,977 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,395 lots, up 30 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 110,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,903 tons, down 2,016 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is not clearly presented. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,925 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L is not clearly presented. The price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,920 US dollars/ton, down 350 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 280 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 980 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,381 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 286 yuan/ton, down 341 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.4 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 59.1 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 4 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 62.44%, down 0.18 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 74.84%, up 0.28 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.78 days, down 0.02 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 48.78 days, up 0.25 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.74%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.59%, up 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.27%, up 1.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.26%, up 1.58 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), basically flat compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory is 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory is 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 29, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Suggested Attention - The opening rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]