南华期货油脂产业周报：短期宏观情绪转弱，压制油脂上方空间-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver remains in the overseas market of the origin. The overall price trend is affected by factors such as the inventory - demand game in palm oil origin, US biodiesel policies, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Although short - term macro sentiment weakens and suppresses the upside space of the market, the overall trend has not changed. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels and not to short for the time being [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction of palm oil lies in the game between inventory pressure and demand growth in the origin. Although Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, the current inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the biodiesel demand side is limited. It is necessary to wait for the Ramadan stocking demand in India to boost palm oil prices [1]. - The latest news on the US biodiesel policy indicates that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty restrictions being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market and Canadian rapeseed. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - The Sino - Canadian negotiation is currently optimistic, and the import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest, the support for rapeseed oil has weakened. However, due to Trump's threat to Canada, Sino - Canadian trade is still variable, and short - term supply concerns remain [2]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Soybean oil is in the process of destocking, but the supply pressure is still higher than that of last year. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited. Attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for palm oil to rise in the medium term. - Price Range: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8200 - 9400], Y2605 in the range of [7600 - 8300], and OI2605 in the range of [8600 - 9500]. - Technical Analysis: Treat P05 and Y05 as having a unilateral strong trend, and pay attention to whether the upper pressure level can be broken through. The short - term upside space is expected to be limited. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads [16]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: - Basis Strategy: Currently, view the basis as having a short - term weak and volatile trend. - Calendar Spread Strategy: None for now. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: Treat the soybean - palm spread as weakening [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Oil Price Range Forecast: - Soybean oil: 7600 - 8300, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in three - year volatility. - Rapeseed oil: 8600 - 9500, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in three - year volatility. - Palm oil: 8200 - 9400, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in three - year volatility [20]. - Oil Hedging Strategy Table: - Traders' Inventory Management: When the oil inventory is high and there are concerns about falling oil prices, short soybean oil futures according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 8200 - 8300. - Refineries' Procurement Management: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy soybean oil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7700. - Oil Mills' Inventory Management: When worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean oil sales prices, short soybean oil futures according to the enterprise's situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 8100 - 8200 [20]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices: - Palm oil 01: 8866 yuan/ton, down 2.01%. - Palm oil 05: 9014 yuan/ton, down 2.45%. - Palm oil 09: 8958 yuan/ton, down 2.21%. - BMD palm oil main contract: 4196 ringgit/ton, down 0.78%. - Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil: 9030 yuan/ton, up 80. - Guangzhou 24 - degree basis: - 64 yuan/ton, up 6. - POGO: 493.807 dollars/ton, down 1.168. - International soybean - palm difference: 56.11 dollars/ton, up 12.43 [21]. - Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices: - Soybean oil 01: 8004 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Soybean oil 05: 8092 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Soybean oil 09: 8028 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. - CBOT soybean oil main contract: 53.54 cents/pound, down 0.83%. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot: 8430 yuan/ton, down 50. - Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis: 388 yuan/ton, up 90. - BOHO (weekly): 52.062 dollars/barrel, down 5.7062. - Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil difference: - 300 yuan/ton, up 120 [21]. - Rapeseed Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices: - Rapeseed oil 01: 8959 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Rapeseed oil 05: 9136 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Rapeseed oil 09: 9064 yuan/ton, unchanged. - ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract: 645.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.8. - East China rapeseed oil spot: 10000 yuan/ton, down 140. - East China rapeseed oil basis: 864 yuan/ton, up 104. - Brent crude oil main contract: 66.31 dollars/barrel, unchanged. - Domestic first - grade soybean oil - rapeseed oil difference: 1500 yuan/ton, down 40 [22]. - Oil Calendar Spreads and Inter - variety Spreads: - P 1 - 5: - 148 yuan/ton, up 44. - P 5 - 9: 56 yuan/ton, down 24. - P 9 - 1: 92 yuan/ton, down 20. - Y - P 01: - 874 yuan/ton, up 48. - Y - P 05: - 958 yuan/ton, up 22. - Y - P 09: - 946 yuan/ton, up 54 [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: - As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 1.94 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and an increase of 70,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years [23]. - Indonesia set the reference export price of crude palm oil in February 2026 at 918.47 dollars/ton, higher than 915.64 dollars/ton in January. The export tax on crude palm oil in February remained at 74 dollars/ton, the same as in January [24]. - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31 were 1,375,718 tons, a 14.89% increase compared with 1,197,434 tons in the same period last month [24]. - Negative Information: - Affected by the easing of the US - Iran tension, international crude oil futures weakened, and the Chicago soybean oil futures also declined, which will drag down the performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. - Meteorological forecasts show that some areas in Argentina and Brazil will receive rainfall this week, which will promote crop growth. Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the excellent - good rate of Argentine soybeans is 53% [25]. - Spot Transaction Information: - Last week, the transactions of rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased significantly year - on - year, while the transaction of palm oil was slightly weak, with a month - on - month decline. Overall, palm oil transactions were the most stable [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil. - Weather information in the origin [34]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: - Unilateral Trend: This week, the oil market maintained a relatively strong trend. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the boost of the US biodiesel policy and changes in the Sino - Canadian negotiation progress; palm oil also rose significantly due to lack of precipitation in the origin and capital allocation sentiment; soybean oil continued to rise with the oil sector. Overall, the pressure in the oil origin has not been cleared, the US biodiesel policy is beneficial but the final plan is unclear, and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still uncertain [30]. - Capital Trends: The recent changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are generally small. The key seats of soybean oil slightly increased long positions, while rapeseed oil and palm oil reduced short positions. Foreign - funded seats generally reduced short positions and increased long positions in oils, and the overall bullish sentiment in the oil market is good [31]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The oil market still shows a Back structure with near - term strength and far - term weakness, and the spot market remains in a tight supply situation. The P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 spreads maintained a volatile trend; due to the supply gap in the rapeseed oil spot market, the 05 contract strengthened, driving the 5 - 9 spread to rise [33]. - Basis Structure: This week, the basis of the main oil contracts continued to grind at the bottom. The domestic oil inventory is high, and downstream demand lacks a boost. The basis of soybean and palm oil main contracts continued to operate weakly. Although the downstream of rapeseed oil is average, the spot supply is limited, and the basis of the main contract fluctuates more obviously. However, with the continuous improvement of the optimistic expectation of Sino - Canadian relations, the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract gradually weakens [41]. - Spread Structure: This week, due to the lack of further information, the inter - variety spreads were mainly volatile. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts to destock, the support improves. With the opening of the Canadian rapeseed import window and the continuous replenishment of rapeseed oil supply, the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken. The far - month basis is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate due to the alleviation of supply tension, and the corresponding calendar spread should be treated as a long - spread arbitrage [54]. - Foreign Market: - Foreign Market Trend: This week, the foreign market was mainly volatile. Palm oil became more optimistic due to Malaysia's entry into the production - reduction season, better - than - expected export boost, and signs of drought in the weather. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [57]. - Capital Positions: Currently, the net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, and the bullish sentiment has improved. The motivation of speculative funds to continue to go long has increased, and some have chosen to increase long positions. The net short - position ratio of commercial positions such as producers and traders is relatively high, and the industrial hedging pressure is huge. They are bearish on the forward price and actively sell futures to lock in future profits or hedge inventory risks, which limits the further upward space of prices [59]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread decreased slightly this week, but the cost of palm oil - based biodiesel remains high, and Southeast Asian biodiesel policies still need government subsidies to be motivated. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a relatively low level in recent years due to the sufficient global soybean supply. The global soybean oil valuation continues to be low, but with the rebound of US soybean prices, the BOHO spread is expected to gradually strengthen, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production in December was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; the ending inventory was 3.051 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. The domestic consumption demand in Malaysia was about 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.8%. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export improvement is expected to promote the destocking process. Currently, there is limited rainfall in the main producing areas of Malaysia, especially in the Malay Peninsula, where there is a drought risk. Pay attention to the subsequent rainfall situation. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased month - on - month in January, and exports were optimistically boosted. The inventory inflection point may appear in January. Pay attention to the changes in production and destocking progress in the origin [68]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: In the current procurement situation, trading is difficult to improve in the off - season. The origin has entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to destock and sell goods is limited. In addition, palm oil is prone to solidify in winter, and the demand is weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and ship purchases are not expected to increase. Wait for the rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin is relieved [70]. - Soybean Oil: In the first quarter, it enters the seasonal low point of soybean arrivals, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Pay attention to whether there will be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [70]. - Rapeseed Oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived successively, the quantity is limited. The inventory continues to be destocked, and the spot market remains in a tight supply situation. However, with the global rapeseed harvest, the cost price is weak. Coupled with the resumption of Sino - Canadian trade, the domestic rapeseed oil supply may further increase in the future [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. Although winter is the traditional peak consumption season for oils, the market boost is limited after the Spring Festival stocking. Due to