煤焦日报：中长期驱动不足，煤焦维持震荡运行-20260203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, 2026, the coke main contract closed at 1715 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.17%. The position of the main contract at the close was 35,800 lots, with a difference of -249 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%. The coke fundamentals have little change, and raw material coking coal has not provided continuous support, so coke futures will maintain a low - level range operation [6][33]. - On February 3, 2026, the coking coal main contract closed at 1167.5 points, with an intraday decline of 0.17%. The position of the main contract at the close was 434,400 lots, with a difference of +2532 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1190.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0%. Overall, the coking coal fundamentals have no obvious changes. There are three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage is ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot; the Spring Festival is approaching, and there is an expectation that coal mines may stop production and have holidays in advance; the tense Middle - East situation has driven up the prices of energy commodities due to geopolitical premiums on crude oil. However, lacking domestic policy and fundamental support, coking coal futures still lack the momentum for continuous upward movement, and the price is expected to maintain a range operation in the near future [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, global shipyards received 67 + 22 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 59 + 18 new ship orders, South Korean shipyards received 6 new ship orders, and French shipyards also received relevant new ship orders [8]. - On February 3, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market dropped by 30 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1600 yuan/ton including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port for flat - closing is 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%, a month - on - month increase of 3.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.06%, and a decrease of 4.40% compared with the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%, no change month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%, and a decrease of 3.92% compared with the same period [10]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%, a year - on - year increase of 0.85%, and an increase of 3.48% compared with the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%, a year - on - year increase of 8.72%, and an increase of 8.72% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1780 yuan/ton, no change week - on - week, no change month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, and an increase of 19.46% compared with the same period [10]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract of coke futures is 1715 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.17%. The highest price is 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1691 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 22,079 lots, with a difference of - 1629 lots from the previous trading day, and the position is 35,837 lots, with a difference of -249 lots from the previous trading day [13]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the active contract of coking coal futures is 1167.5 points, with a decline of 0.17%. The highest price is 1188 points, the lowest price is 1145 points, the trading volume is 1,120,877 lots, with a difference of -221,896 lots from the previous trading day, and the position is 434,435 lots, with a difference of +2532 lots from the previous trading day [13]. Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2021 to 2026 [14][16][17][18]. - Coking Coal Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, full - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills on a weekly basis from 2021 to 2026 [19][21][22][24]. - Other Charts: There are charts showing domestic steel - mill production (including blast - furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (including clean - coal inventory and operating rate), and coking - plant operation (including coke - ton profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [27][29][32]. Future Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals have little change, and raw material coking coal has not provided continuous support, so coke futures will maintain a low - level range operation [33]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. Although there are some positive factors, lacking domestic policy and fundamental support, coking coal futures still lack the momentum for continuous upward movement, and the price is expected to maintain a range operation in the near future [33].