养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can still be considered for bargain - buying if there is a large decline [1] - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and excessive bearishness is not recommended due to a marginal improvement in inventory compared to the second half of last year [2] - The darkest time for pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of better quality commanding a higher price. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1] - On February 2, 2026, at 14:00, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction 60,608 tons of soybeans, all of which were sold. The reserve price was 4,050 yuan per ton, the average transaction price was 4,298 yuan per ton, and the premium was 210 - 310 yuan per ton [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Under the game of increased supply and decreased demand, the corn trend is weak. Farmers who want to sell grain are selling one after another, and traders and grain dealers have little expectation of price increases. The shipment volume before the Spring Festival has increased [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%. The supply and demand sides are in continuous game. Currently, North China has a low - price area. In addition to the support of deep - processing stocking demand, traders have the intention to build warehouses, and the actual increase in market supply is limited. The corn price is stable with a slight upward trend [1] Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a relatively high level in recent years, with sufficient basic market supply capacity [2] - The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent sharp rise in egg prices, the income of the breeding link has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. The industry generally has the idea of delaying the culling of old hens and even molting them later, resulting in a decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens and slowing down the reduction rate of production capacity [2] - According to the breeding cycle, the newly - laid hens recently were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg price at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still gradually coming into production, resulting in the situation of "old hens not leaving and new hens coming", and the overall national production capacity remains at a high level [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9%, and currently it is 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million compared with the previous year, a growth of 2.4% [2] - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million compared with the end of the previous year, a growth of 0.5% [2] - From the end of January to the beginning of February, as the pre - Spring Festival slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices to weaken further. Although farmers have resistance to price drops and there are weather disturbances, they can only slow down the downward rate and are difficult to reverse the trend [3]