塑料日报：震荡运行-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week-on-week, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de-stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics in recent days, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,811 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,937 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.15%. The position increased by 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot markets declined, with a price change range between - 200 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,600 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders of agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The orders of packaging film also decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 95,000 tons to 505,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de - stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract dropped to $66/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $680/ton week - on - week [4].