油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强-20260203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. For conservative investors, it's recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2] - Due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, the entire edible oil sector declined, and the EU's resistance to imported biodiesel also dampened biodiesel demand. However, the U.S. biofuel policy nearing implementation is the biggest support factor for edible oils. Before the policy is officially implemented, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. Spot traders can consider taking basis at appropriate price drops, and the market needs to pay attention to the guidance from the implementation of the U.S. biofuel policy [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - As of January 29, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 10%, compared with 4.9% last week and 3.9% in the same period last year. Almost all soybean - producing states have started harvesting, and there are no major harvest delays reported, but attention is turning to the high - temperature and drought weather in southern Brazil and Mato Grosso do Sul [1] - As of the week of January 29, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons, compared with 1,140,431 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume so far in the 2025/26 season reached 21,991,461 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.7%, and the U.S. soybean exports so far in the 2025/26 season have reached 51.3% of the annual export target [1] 3.2. Edible Oils - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026 were 1,375,718 tons, a 14.89% increase compared with the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian president plans to ban the export of palm oil waste to support domestic biodiesel and aviation fuel production and reduce energy import dependence [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in large - scale samples across the country was 2.2827 million tons, a decrease of 68,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.90%; a year - on - year increase of 17,100 tons, an increase of 0.75% [2]